USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Con
There’s finally a new frontrunner for NFL MVP after Lamar Jackson torched the Buccaneers on Monday night with 281 passing yards and five touchdown passing touchdowns.
Jackson now has 15 TDs to just two interceptions this season, and while he’s already won MVP twice, he’s arguably playing the best football of his career.
He’s down to as low as +210 at FanDuel to win MVP.
Meanwhile, Mahomes is putting up statistics that don’t resemble an MVP candidate. He has thrown eight interceptions to six touchdowns and ranks just 14th in EPA+CPOE.
With the Chiefs 6-0 despite several injuries to skill players, the narrative is easy to craft for Mahomes, but he’ll have to drastically improve his numbers to be considered.
It should help that the team acquired DeAndre Hopkins on Wednesday.
Let’s do some projecting and discuss three players at various price points who could make an MVP push in the second half of the season.
Week 8 NFL MVP odds
| Player | Odds | Week 8 Opponent |
|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | +195 | at Browns |
| Patrick Mahomes | +470 | at Raiders |
| Josh Allen | +650 | at Seahawks |
| Jared Goff | +700 | vs. Titans |
| Jordan Love | +1200 | at Jaguars |
| C.J. Stroud | +2000 | vs. Colts |
| Sam Darnold | +2000 | at Rams |
2024 NFL MVP value picks
Josh Allen (+650, FanDuel)
Through three weeks of the season, Allen was the MVP favorite with the Bills undefeated.
However, he’s had a few quiet games since, dropping him down the board. Still, he ranks third in the NFL this season in EPA+CPOE and fourth in passer rating.
He’s thrown 12 touchdowns with no interceptions.
To be fair, he’s undoubtedly gotten lucky in that department — he ranks fifth in the league with ten turnover-worthy plays.
Allen has matchups against three beatable defenses over the next three weeks, including the Seahawks, Dolphins and Colts, which will allow him to bolster his stats.
Then, he gets the Chiefs and 49ers at home, which will provide massive opportunities for signature MVP-level wins.
My biggest concern is the end of the schedule—how much credit will Allen get for beating the Jets and Patriots twice as the final votes are being tallied?
Still, adding Amari Cooper gives the Bills a much-needed boost at wide receiver, and this could be the year Allen finally wins his first MVP.
At greater than 6-1 odds, this might finally be the time to buy in.
Jordan Love (+1300, DraftKings)
I recommended Jordan Love at 75-1 odds in this column a few weeks ago as he was set to return from his injury, and he’s been doing his best Brett Favre impersonation since re-entering the lineup, throwing for 13 touchdowns and seven interceptions over the last four weeks.
He’s up a 15:8 TD:INT ratio for the year, and he’ll need to cut down on those turnovers to be considered for MVP.
Betting on the NFL?
- Read our expert guide on how to bet on the NFL
- Check out the best NFL betting sites
- Get the BetMGM Bonus Code
Despite those turnovers, he ranks 10th in the NFL in adjusted EPA/play, and the Packers are 5-2 and very much alive in the NFC North.
He’ll have opportunities to post big numbers against the Jaguars’ and Lions’ pass defenses over the next two weeks, and if he defeats Detroit next week, we might not see a number priced over 10-1 odds for the rest of the season on Love.
Joe Burrow (+1700, DraftKings)
The Bengals are fighting tooth and nail to recover from a 1-4 start to the season, but their offense remains one of the best in the league thanks to Joe Burrow’s incredible year.
Burrow ranks fourth in the NFL in EPA+CPOE and has 14 touchdowns to just two interceptions. He also ranks third with a 79.1% adjusted completion rate.
If the Bengals were 5-3 instead of 3-4, Burrow might be the MVP favorite, and perhaps they should be with a 1-4 record in one-score games this season.
Upcoming games against the hapless Raiders, Titans, and Browns should help them pad their record, and I like them to win this week against the Eagles, but a path to the playoffs will still be difficult after that brutal start.
The MVP award has only gone to a quarterback on a team that didn’t win its division twice – Peyton Manning in 2008 and Johnny Unitas in 1967.
Burrow is fighting an uphill battle against history, with the Bengals priced as long as 10-1 odds to win the AFC North on FanDuel. Still, don’t count Burrow out of the race after his torrid start to the year.
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Jacob Wayne handicaps college football and the NFL for the New York Post. He’s up 84.5 units across the two sports with a 6.27% ROI.