A top polling guru regarded as the equivalent to the ‘Nostradamus’ of US presidential elections has revealed what his gut tells him on if Kamala Harris or Donald Trump will win.
Nate Silver, a statistician and poker player who founded FiveThirtyEight, has been delivering daily polling averages and forecasts for the November election based on his model.
Experts and everyday voters have been turning to his Silver Bulletin presidential election forecast as one of the most trusted assessments of who the election is tipping in favor of. It has even put him in direct debate with historian Allan Lichtman, who has been nicknamed ‘Nostradamus’ for correctly predicting nine of the 10 most recent presidential election.
Lichtman about a month ago unveiled his pick based on keys informed by true-false question, not polls. He said Harris will win the election.
While Silver’s prediction can change on a daily basis as he updates his model, he has now shared what his gut tells him.
‘I inevitably get a question: “C’mon, Nate, what’s your gut say?”’ he wrote in a guest essay published in The New York Times on Wednesday.
‘So OK, I’ll tell you. My gut says Donald Trump.
And my guess is that it is true for many anxious Democrats.’
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