Overstating or misrepresenting the case against the oil and gas emissions cap risks undermining the campaign and, by extension, the cause
In assessing the merits of Alberta’s new “Scrap the Cap” campaign, it’s useful to first consider whether the government’s objective is actually to scrap the cap.
After all, if the aim is to simply demonstrate to a certain political audience this government’s willingness to stand up to Ottawa, then the merits or effectiveness of the campaign itself don’t matter all that much. Measuring its success becomes a much different calculation.
But if this is indeed a genuine attempt to convince Ottawa to abandon its proposed oil and gas emissions cap — and in the process, convince other Canadians to support this cause — then it is reasonable to scrutinize and critique this strategy.
Make no mistake, Alberta is right to be concerned about the potential effect of this policy. We’re still awaiting final details on how and when this would be implemented, but there are credible analyses that have concluded the likelihood of significant economic harm is quite high.
Furthermore, a sector-specific emissions cap represents a costly and inefficient approach to reducing emissions and flies in the face of the government’s preferred approach of pricing carbon emissions irrespective of their source.
The case against policy is therefore both straightforward and compelling. However, overstating or misrepresenting that case risks undermining the campaign and, by extension, the cause. Unfortunately, the early returns on this campaign would indicate that the province is guilty of veering recklessly into the latter territory.
First of all, the website for the Scrap the Cap campaign (and something echoed in much of the rhetoric at the campaign launch) doesn’t even refer to this as an emissions cap, but rather an “energy production cap.” It’s possible, depending on how this is implemented, that meeting certain targets by a certain date might mean scaling back some production. But it’s disingenuous to frame a possible consequence of this policy as its stated objective.
Such an approach is not helpful, especially if this campaign is about winning hearts and minds. The same objection can be levelled at another central theme of the campaign: the claim that it will increase the price of groceries. For all the valid critiques of the cap, this is not a claim that had previously been made nor is it a claim that follows any logic. Even in a scenario where oil and gas production is curbed, that’s not going to affect global oil prices and certainly not going to raise those prices.
When pressed about this, Premier Danielle Smith noted that if jobs vanish and wages are suppressed, affording groceries could prove to be more challenging. This is indeed possible, but it’s a very different sort of claim. As it stands, the misleading claim is still front and centre on the website that the Alberta government is spending millions of dollars to promote.
There is certainly the potential for Alberta and Ottawa to work together on emissions-reduction strategies, such as cutting oil and gas methane emissions. There’s also lots of room for co-operation when it comes to furthering emissions-reduction technology, such as carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS). After all, the province still claims to aspire to carbon neutrality by 2050 and clearly it doesn’t intend to cap production. So while the proposed emissions cap may be impractical, what is the plan for making sure the 2050 target is achievable?
This may all be a moot point if and when the federal Liberals are voted out of office. For as much as the premier has warned about a lame-duck Liberal government ramming through all sorts of new policies to tie their successors’ hands, it would be pretty simple — and not at all surprising — for a Conservative government to simply abandon the emissions cap.
Still, though, it would be useful for the Alberta government to maintain some credibility on this matter.
So far, we’re not off to a great start.
“Afternoons with Rob Breakenridge” airs weekdays from 12:30 to 3 p.m. on QR Calgary Radio