Unless you possessed a crystal ball or David Stearns’ special knowledge/faith in his team, the Mets looked like they were headed for a transition year with the potential to play .500 baseball in 2024. Then they started playing, and even that looked optimistic.
The Dodgers, meantime, were viewed as an unstoppable force after doling out more than $1 billion last winter for international superstar Shohei Ohtani, coveted young right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto and assorted others, adding to a crazy collection of holdover stars.
Yet there they stood, dead even in the National League Championship Series heading into Game 3 at Citi Field on Wednesday night. And guess what? In at least some ways, if not most, the Mets hold the edge. Here’s why they should be favored in by far the more interesting series going on (and if you doubt that, check the ratings!):
1. The Dodgers rotation borders on nonexistent.
There’s a reason Dodgers manager Dave Roberts called this his “most challenging season,” and this is probably reason one through five. The Dodgers employ a veritable All-Star team of starters, but most of them remain out (Tyler Glasnow, Clayton Kershaw, Gavin Stone, Dustin May, Tony Gonsolin, Emmet Sheehan and River Ryan, plus of course Ohtani, at least as a pitcher for now) or slumping to the point of being unusable (Bobby Miller).
That leaves a rotation of three, and even they have questions attached to them. Jack Flaherty shut down a flat Mets team in Game 1, but he’s been battling a lower-back issue most of the year, to the point where the Yankees backed away from a trade for him. Flaherty’s a pro and his location was pinpoint, but the Mets looked off for the only time this October following a few days off and their cross country flight. (Dodgers folks actually wondered why they didn’t fly out a day earlier and work out at Dodger Stadium.)
Yamamoto was one of the most ballyhooed and beloved free agents ever, but he’s currently a five-inning pitcher whose patented split finger isn’t what it was since a midsummer shoulder concern. Mets people tried hard for him, and they also still believe in his talent (and youth), but from here he doesn’t seem like a superstar — at least not yet. “Three-hundred million doesn’t get what it used to,” one old-time scout sniffed (it was actually $325M plus a $50.6M posting fee).
Then there’s Game 3 starter Walker Buehler, a former October star who isn’t the same since his second Tommy John surgery. He appears to be starting out of necessity more than belief. I mean, how many bullpen games can you throw?
2. The Dodgers shutdown bullpen is bound to become overworked at some point.
Roberts saved the Dodgers’ key pen trio of Evan Phillips, Michael Kopech and Blake Treinen once the Mets grabbed a six-run lead in Game 2. And maybe they have enough left to get through another series where the relief contingent throws the majority of innings. But at some point, you wonder when they will burn out.
Follow The Post’s coverage of the Mets in the postseason:
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- Vaccaro: This version of Luis Severino is just what Mets need after years of Yankees hype
- Heyman: Rising Mets star’s breakout October is only a surprise to everyone else
- Francisco Lindor has eyes on bigger prize after MLB snub
With only three starters on the roster, they will need to throw another bullpen game unless they can wrap things up in five. That’s only good news for the Mets.
3. Ohtani isn’t himself since Game 1 of the Division Series.
The great Ohtani put on a show in LA’s Game 1 victory over the Padres but hadn’t done much since entering Game 3. One oddity is that while he was 0-for-19 with no runners on base, he still was 6-for-8 with runners on. That would actually work better if he weren’t the leadoff man, but in any case, they aren’t the stats you’d expect from league’s certain MVP.
He didn’t sound too concerned on workout day, saying, “If I’m feeling good and the results aren’t there, then I’m not too concerned because there’s luck involved.”
Well, so far the Mets are a little lucky because he’d been off since Game 2 of the Division Series.
4. Freddie Freeman’s legendary toughness is being tested.
Dodgers folks say he’s even limping on his way in from the parking lot and that it’s a miracle he’s still (mostly) playing with his severe ankle injury. Frankly, it looks painful just to watch him play these days.
5. Mark Vientos is making October his own.
Some folks love the spotlight, and Vientos, who suffered two demotions to Triple-A Syracuse this year, seems to be one of those guys who plays better under the bright lights.
Vientos called what’s going on with him “surreal” a week ago, and that was several big moments ago. He led MLB in hits and RBIs this postseason entering Wednesday, and feels like the biggest threat in a Mets lineup with three $20M-a-year players.
6. The Mets are at Citi Field the next three games.
The home field isn’t such a big deal in baseball, but it is cold, which provides a nice contrast from LA, where it’s perfect day after day. The crowd was crazy Wednesday for the Mets’ first NLCS game in nine years. Fans understand they’ve got a decent shot at this, and maybe even better than that.