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On Thursday night, the Saints host the Broncos in a battle between rookie quarterbacks.
Denver’s Bo Nix travels to face New Orleans’ Spencer Rattler, who made his NFL debut last week.
This game also marks the return of head coach Sean Payton to face his former team. Payton spent 15 years coaching the Saints from 2006-21.
The spread for this game has been inching toward Denver as a road favorite due to some significant injury attrition for the home underdogs.
Let’s dive into the matchup and see where the value lies.
Broncos vs. Saints odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Broncos | -3 (-102) | -148 | o37 (-110) |
| Saints | +3 (-118) | +124 | u37 (-110) |
When the Broncos have the ball
Nix has had a tumultuous start to his rookie season, ranking just 34th out of 39 qualified quarterbacks in EPA+CPOE, an all-encompassing stat measuring passing efficiency.
Denver’s offensive line has been excellent in pass protection, ranking first in pass-block win rate, but the Broncos have struggled to find consistent pass-catching options.
Payton hinted that rookies Troy Franklin and Devaughn Vele would see more work moving forward.
The Saints’ defense was impressive to begin the season, but it’s started to fall apart in recent weeks, down to 14th in DVOA.
A significant culprit has been the team’s lack of ability to generate a push up front.
According to ESPN, the Saints rank 26th in pass-rush win rate and 32nd in run-stop win rate. They’ve also allowed the third-most yards before contact per attempt, per Fantasy Points Data.
When the Saints have the ball
On a down-to-down basis, Rattler struggled mightily while filling in for the injured Derek Carr. Out of 39 quarterbacks with 50-plus dropbacks this season, he ranks last in the EPA+CPOE composite.
New Orleans scored 27 points last week in a wild game environment that featured 138 plays, but it wasn’t an efficient outing; the Saints finished with an early down success rate of 39%, which would rank 28th in the NFL over the entire season.
It won’t get any easier for Rattler this week against a Broncos pass defense ranked seventh in DVOA.
Denver will be without Patrick Surtain II, who suffered a concussion on Sunday, but cornerbacks Riley Moss and Ja’Quan McMillan have had impressive seasons.
The Broncos, who blitz at the highest rate in the NFL, will rely on their pressure to get home against a New Orleans offensive line that ranks 31st in Pro Football Focus’ pass-blocking grades.
The Saints are hurting on the interior of their offensive line, with Cesar Ruiz out, Lucas Patrick questionable and Erik McCoy on IR. That could be a massive issue against defensive tackle Zach Allen, who leads the position in pass-rush win rate.
The Saints will also be without wide receivers Chris Olave (concussion) and Rashid Shaheed (knee), while running back Alvin Kamara is still working through multiple ailments.
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Broncos vs. Saints pick
Even without Surtain active Thursday, it’s challenging to envision Rattler finding much success moving the ball against Denver’s defense.
The Saints are without all two of their three starters on the interior of their offensive line and their top two wide receivers.
Rather than bet on Nix as a road favorite in prime time, let’s fade the New Orleans offense and bet their team total under 17.5 points.
Best bet: Saints under 17.5 points (-122, DraftKings)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Jacob Wayne handicaps college football and the NFL for the New York Post. He’s up 84.5 units across the two sports with a 6.27% ROI.