Sales up slightly but still outpaced by new listings, CREA says
While the slight rise in sales is notable, industry watchers believe the market is in a holding pattern as buyers wait for more significant changes.
“Looking at September’s ho-hum housing figures, it feels like we’re in that moment just before a starter pistol goes off,” said Clay Jarvis, a spokesperson at personal finance company, NerdWallet. “The market’s loaded with new listings, but buyers still aren’t ready to run headlong into gigantic mortgages.”
Meanwhile, the number of new listings rose 4.9 per cent month-over-month in September, as more sellers entered the market. This surge pushed the national sales-to-new listings ratio down to 51.3 per cent from 52.8 per cent in August — a ratio that still falls within the realm of a balanced market.
By the end of September, there were 185,427 properties listed for sale across Canada, up 16.8 per cent from 2023 but still below historical averages of around 200,000 listings for this time of year. Inventory levels dipped slightly, with 4.1 months of inventory available, down from 4.2 months in August. The long-term average is 5.1 months, with anything below 3.6 months signalling a seller’s market.
Looking at the market for the remainder of 2024, CREA’s senior economist Shaun Cathcart noted, “With the pace of rate cuts now expected to be much faster than previously thought, it’s possible some buyers may choose to hold off on a purchase for now. This could further boost the rebound expected in 2025 at the expense of the last few months of this year.”
Robert Kavcic, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, believes that while rate cuts have provided some relief, the market will need more than lower rates to gain momentum.
“We’re moving further down the rate-relief path, but it’s still going to take more to get the market moving again,” he said.