It is hard to function in the social climate of today without having a strong opinion about … well, everything. Any hot take is superior to an “I don’t know.”
But, and hear us out a moment, what if you don’t know? Or, at least, what if you don’t have a strong opinion? What if options A, B and C all have their benefits and their warts, and by the time you measure all the factors, there just isn’t a big difference?
That is sort of where the Madman was in our preseason evaluation of Texans wide receivers.
We liked Nico Collins because he was the best producer on the team last season. However, he was also the most expensive. We liked Stefon Diggs because he is the most accomplished throughout his career. But he had the most uncertainty because he was the oldest and the newest to land on the roster. We liked Tank Dell because he has the highest ceiling, coming off a strong rookie season, but he also had injury concerns and was the most likely to lose targets.
So how do you reconcile these competing factors when constructing your roster primarily through the draft? When faced with such uncertainty, we like the guy we can get for the cheapest — because the less conviction we have, the less we want to pay.
That player, in this circumstance, was Tank Dell. Of the three, he was going the latest in drafts, so he became our preferred target of the three. And because he was an easy target — took him soon after someone picked Diggs — we ended up with a lot of him.
Alas, sometimes you get what you pay for, and Dell has not delivered this season — with registering mere single digits in PPR in three of his four games and missing another.
One of our worries — his getting short shrift in a offense populated with playmakers — was coming true. Diggs and Collins both have twice as many targets, more than double the receptions, more than double the yards, and all six of the touchdowns scored by Houston receivers.
Dell’s season has been tanking. But … now there is a reason for hope, though it comes at a cost. Collins was placed on IR this week with a hamstring problem, meaning he will miss at least the next four games.
That is all the opening it should take for Dell to return to the peak of his rookie production. From Weeks 9-12, Dell was a top-10 WR before suffering a season-ending fibula fracture.
This season, Collins has been the WR2, Diggs the WR8, so there is plenty of room for two productive WRs in this offense. And Dell should now get those No. 2 numbers.
That’s great news for those of us who drafted a lot of Dell. But before you break out the pom poms and start with a “Gimme a T-A-N-K!” cheer, pump the brakes for just a second.
The Texans play the Patriots this week. It isn’t necessarily the matchup, since the Pats are ranked just 19th against opposing receivers. However, they are starting rookie QB Drake Maye. And they have an offensive line made of paper mache — ranked worst in the league by Pro Football Focus before the season and has given up the second-most sacks.
Thus, we’re not expecting the Pats offense to put up much of a fight, so no need for the Texans to score a lot to win. Thus, we don’t expect a ton of fantasy points from the Texans this week.
The Tank is coming guys, it just might not get here this week. But Dell will give opponents hell in the weeks to come.
Big Weeks
Daniel Jones QB, Giants, vs. Bengals (FanDuel $6,800/DraftKings $5,300)
Don’t look now, but Jones has scored better than 18 fantasy points in three of his past four games. Sunday he gets the Bengals, who rank 28th vs. opposing fantasy QBs and have given up an average of 25.7 over the past three weeks.
Caleb Williams QB, Bears, vs. Jaguars (N/A)
The Jags are the worst in the league vs. opposing fantasy QBs and have given up multiple passing TDs the past three weeks.
Bucky Irving RB, Buccaneers, at Saints (FD $5,700/DK $5,400)
Yeah, we know, we tout him frequently. But Rachaad White was downgraded from limited to did not practice late in the week, which is never a good sign. The Bucky Week is coming. Could be this one.
Tre Tucker WR, Raiders, vs. Steelers (FD $5,400/DK $4,200)
Davante Adams is expected to be out again, and Jakobi Meyers missed practices this week with an ankle problem. Could be the Brock Bowers & Tucker Show with Adian O’Connell at QB.
Small Weaks
Baker Mayfield QB, Buccaneers, at Saints (FD $7,900/DK $6,500)
The Saints have given up one QB passing TD all season. And they’ve played some quality fantasy QBs — Dak Prescott, Jalen Hurts, Kirk Cousins, and … does Patrick Mahomes still qualify?
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Brian Robinson Jr. RB, Commanders, at Ravens (FD $7,700/DK $6,400)
Missing multiple practices with a knee injury isn’t ideal. Austin Ekeler being healthy doesn’t help. Facing the fifth-stingiest defensive vs. fantasy RBs doesn’t help.
Alec Pierce WR, Colts, at Titans (FD $5,800/DK $5,400)
With Michael Pittman Jr. out, someone should get some extra volume. Only, Anthony Richardson is back, which sends Joe Flacco to the sidelines, and means there is no volume for any WRs. Pierce, and other Colts WRs, will need a long TD. Not worth the gamble.
Dallas Goedert TE, Eagles, vs. Browns (FD $7,000/DK $5,200)
A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith are on track to return this week. Remember those single-digit Goedert games to start the season? Expect some more.