The frightening prospect of Kamala Harris as U.S. president, along with Democratic control of Congress, can no longer be dismissed as a likely outcome of the upcoming election.
Why frightening? Albertans must understand their future prosperity depends on hydrocarbon production in a world that still demands it but lacks the will to impose the costs required to achieve meaningful decarbonization. Harris, her political allies and supporters are committed to that outcome — one that goes against the fundamental interests of Alberta.
This is the same agenda that has defined the Justin Trudeau-Steven Guilbeault-Mark Carney regime and the Canadian “left” since 2015. But, at least in Canada, they’ve been transparent about that commitment.
Harris, however, exemplifies ruthless cynicism (if not outright deceit) by suggesting she is now open to tolerating “fracking,” without disavowing any of the Biden administration’s climate goals. These include decarbonization by 2050, reducing emissions by 50 per cent by 2030, achieving zero-emission passenger vehicles and eliminating fossil fuels from electricity generation by 2035, and curtailing LNG exports; fracking is fundamentally incompatible with these objectives.
Yet, environmental groups remain conspicuously silent on her apparent policy reversal to boost her chances of winning the election, particularly in Pennsylvania — a critical swing state that has benefited immensely from fracking.
What these groups expect from Harris is comprehensive regulation of how hydrocarbons can be produced and consumed, with the intent to eliminate them from the energy mix as quickly as possible. They are not interested in the nuanced, theoretically optimal option of carbon pricing or imperfect subsidies in the Inflation Reduction Act.
Why? Because no other policy approach will drive decarbonization with the same certainty. The only remaining debate will be how fast this can be achieved, how punitive the penalties for non-compliance and how to allocate funds to politically favoured interest groups affected by higher energy costs.
This will likely unfold before Canada holds its next federal election. Albertans should resign themselves for the harsh reality that the next federal election won’t occur until late 2025 — delaying it serves the political interests of the Canadian left.
Expect the federal Liberals to campaign on full alignment with a Harris administration and Democratic-controlled Congress, especially with respect to energy and climate policy. A Harris presidency will be viewed as a validation of long-standing leftist values and obsessions.
Even though carbon taxes have become a political liability for the Trudeau government, don’t expect them to back down if re-elected. Instead, they will continue to increase carbon taxes and resort to fulsome regulation and prohibition, mirroring the heavy-handed approach to be taken by Harris. Their mission is clear: accelerate decarbonization at any cost.
While Albertans can’t vote in the U.S. election, they have every right to demand their politicians are prepared to defend Alberta’s core economic interests. How much economic sacrifice are they prepared to impose on Alberta?
And take no solace in any leadership change within the federal Liberal party before the next election. Mark Carney, if anything, is an even more zealous advocate for decarbonization, full of polished sophistry and self-declared moral superiority.
Optimal climate and energy policies for Alberta, Canada and the U.S. should include a rationally designed carbon pricing system (which has never been applied in Canada to date) based on an assessment of the net costs and benefits of hydrocarbon production and consumption, applying real-world discount rates. Pricing should be fully transparent so voters understand what costs are being imposed, and should only be applied if all developed countries, including China and India, impose the same costs.
Without international consensus to apply the same level of tax, why would any country impose these burdens on itself unilaterally?
Rest assured, a future Harris administration and leftist federal government in Canada will not champion this kind of rationality. Instead, they will pursue a relentless and obsessive push for decarbonization, regardless of the economic and social consequences.
Dennis McConaghy, a former executive vice-president at TransCanada Corp., now TC Energy, recently published his third book, Carbon Change: Canada on the Brink of Decarbonization.