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There’s an argument to be made that Wednesday’s MLB playoff slate is the most intriguing of the entire season, as baseball fans will be treated to four important Divisional Round matchups.
The night-capper in San Diego offers one of two potential close-out games on the day, with the Dodgers looking to fend off elimination and force a decisive Game 5 against the Padres.
The Padres were my pick to win it all entering the playoffs. At the time, they were +1200 long shots, but after beating the Dodgers in Game 3, they find themselves as the favorites (+270, FanDuel), ahead of the Yankees (+320) and Mets (+550).
San Diego would love nothing better than to close out the series at home, while the Dodgers attempt to get the series back to Chavez Ravine for a winner-take-all on Friday.
With both teams super motivated, expect lots of fireworks again Wednesday night.
Dodgers vs. Padres Game 4 NLDS Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Run Line | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dodgers | +115 | +1.5 (-180) | o8 (-105) |
| Padres | -135 | -1.5 (+150) | u8 (-115) |
Dodgers vs. Padres prediction
Thanks to several pitchers with notable injuries, including Tyler Glasnow and Gavin Stone, the Dodgers’ starting rotation looked unconvincing entering the NLDS.
Los Angeles’ lack of quality starters was the main reason the Padres became a trendy pick to knock off their in-state rival, but nobody could have envisioned what has actually transpired in the first three games of the series.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Jack Flaherty and Walker Buehler have combined for a 10.13 ERA in just 13 1/3 innings of work.
Now, the Dodgers are opting for a bullpen game with Landon Knack expected to lead off the parade of relievers in what could be his first career playoff start.
If Dodgers fans want to view things with a glass-half-full approach, Knack’s 3.78 xERA and 104 Stuff+ suggest he could give them a better chance than Buehler did in Tuesday’s 6-5 loss.
Buehler gave up six runs on seven hits in five innings.
A more pessimistic viewpoint would be that Knack is yet another righty, which was part of the problem for the Dodgers entering the series.
The Padres have been drastically less effective versus left-handed pitching this season, and L.A. doesn’t have a starter to expose that flaw.
If the Dodgers drop this game and the series, plenty of blame will fall upon players like Mookie Betts, Max Muncy and Will Smith, who have now been a part of several playoff disappointments.
This year’s potential early exit would be a different story, however, as the Dodgers offense has been effective against an elite San Diego pitching staff.
They will hope for more of the same as they get another crack at right-hander Dylan Cease, who allowed five earned runs in just 3 1/3 innings in Game 1.
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Dodgers vs. Padres pick
The Dodgers finished the regular season second in wRC+ versus righties, which was one spot above the Padres. Both offenses have displayed a great approach in this series, and I’m not a believer that either unit gets shut down by Wednesday’s starters.
I’m happy to bet on another shootout between these two sides and would bet the game to go over eight runs at anything better than -125.
Pick: Over 8 (+100, BetMGM)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Nicholas Martin handicaps the NHL, MLB and NFL for the New York Post. He strives to include relevant game notes in articles to help bettors come to their own conclusions, but is also up 180 units himself on verified picks in a sports betting app. You can find Nick on X @nickm_hockey.