AP
With conference play in full swing, a handful of teams that weathered September “paycheck games” suddenly have a second life.
That’s especially true in Conference USA, where its teams were pummeled by the likes of Alabama, Louisville, Nebraska and Ole Miss last month.
So, which CUSA team has emerged from the non-conference portion of its schedule with momentum? The Bearkats of Sam Houston.
K.C. Keeler might not be a household name, but he is one of the most talented coaches in America. A two-time FCS/D1-AA national champion, Keeler was instrumental in making Sam Houston a viable FBS candidate.
The Bearkats took their lumps last season, losing their first eight games by an average score of 28-16. But then they turned the corner, winning three of four down the stretch. They also battled CUSA heavyweights Liberty and WKU for four quarters, losing to the Flames and Hilltoppers by five points apiece.
The signs were there for a turnaround in 2024, but now we’re operating on more than just hope. Sam Houston has taken a massive leap forward this fall, sprinting out to a 5-1 start behind a dynamic offense.
The cagey Keeler concealed his pick to run his offense until hours before the first kickoff. His cloak-and-dagger operation caught Rice off-guard in the opener. Hunter Watson, who was barely on scouts’ radar, has been an inspired choice as the Bearkats’ QB1.
The dual-threat passer has already posted two games with 100-plus rushing yards and multiple touchdowns.
With Watson at the controls, Sam Houston’s scoring average has increased by 12 points year over year. And if you have a dynamic offense, you have a chance to topple the top teams and win the conference.
Defensively, Sam Houston already has held three opponents to 14 or fewer points. The difference this year from last is that the Bearkats have cracked the top 30 in terms of limiting explosives (plays of 20-plus yards).
Pro Football Focus rates Sam Houston’s pass defense as the second-best coverage unit in CUSA. A big reason for that is the pass rush, which currently ranks 30th nationally. This will come in handy against the two teams standing between the Bearkats and a CUSA title — Liberty and Western Kentucky.
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The Hilltoppers have become more balanced in recent years but still dial up 35 to 40 pass attempts per game in conference play. As for Liberty, Jamey Chadwell’s offense is far more balanced, if not ground-centric, but stopping the reigning CUSA Player of the Year Kaidon Salter is the way you beat the Flames.
Analyzing Sam Houston’s remaining schedule, it’s clear the Bearkats will be sizable favorites against FIU, La Tech and Kennesaw State. Chalking those up as wins, their title hopes come down to home tilts with Western Kentucky and Liberty and a tricky road trip at Jacksonville State. If they win two of those three, they’re in the CUSA title game, and likely a short road underdog at either Western Kentucky or Liberty.
In the preseason, the narrative about CUSA centered around the assumption that Liberty was unbeatable within the conference. But the first month of the season has shown the Flames aren’t as dynamic offensively as they were last season during their Fiesta Bowl run. Likewise, their defense — despite a Downy-soft schedule — has proven to be far less disruptive.
Now is the time to embrace a non-Liberty champion while there’s still value on the board. Grab the Bearkats before their pivotal Week 8 matchup with Western Kentucky at any number north of +400.
Recommendation: Sam Houston to win Conference USA (+550, bet365)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Mike Calabrese is a handicapper for the New York Post, with a sharp focus on college sports. His betting advice often centers around situational spots, including travel, rest and altitude disparities.