There was a time nearly a half-century ago in which the Yankees had been to the Royals what the recent Astros had been to the Yankees — the ALCS mountain they could not climb.
The George Brett Royals lost to the Yankees in the ALCS in 1976, ’77 and ’78. They got a fourth ALCS rematch two years later, Brett memorably took Goose Gossage deep, ended that hex and went to their first World Series.
The Yankees, who lost the ALCS to the Astros in 2017, ’19 and ’22, did not get a rematch this postseason. Instead, they received a dream draw. The Astros and Orioles were eliminated and the Tigers and Royals moved on to join the Guardians as three AL Central foes along with the Yankees vying for the pennant — and the Yanks have owned that division, especially in October since 2017.
So the road to a first World Series appearance since 2009 opened wider for the Yankees. But as one AL executive said in noting that no one should be surprised by any postseason series result because of the small sample, “KC has what — a 40 percent chance to win this series? Of course, they can beat the Yankees. It’s just more likely that they don’t.”
How they would revolves around excellent starting pitching, a bizarre schedule and unnerving speed.
With the assistance of two scouts and one executive, these were the key areas for the Royals:
The Rotation
You want a road to an upset, it begins at the start: There is extreme pressure on the Yankees to win the opener behind Gerrit Cole because the starting pitching advantage switches to Kansas City for Games 2 and 3 with Cole Ragans and Seth Lugo, who both may finish in the top five for AL Cy Young.
Ragans is the kind of lefty who has unplugged the Yankees all season. The Yankees were just 21-23 against lefty starters this year. Aaron Judge’s 1.240 OPS was the majors’ best against southpaws. Juan Soto was sensational at .966. But the Yanks are really going to need Gleyber Torres and Giancarlo Stanton to do some damage, too.
By Baseball Reference’s game score, Seth Lugo’s Sept. 10 outing in The Bronx — seven innings, three hits, no runs, no walks and 10 strikeouts — was the best of 2024 against the Yankees.
The Ragans/Lugo duo combined for 10 ¹/₃ shutout innings in the Royals’ two-game wild-card sweep of the Orioles.
And starting in Game 1 is Michael Wacha, who did not face the Yankees this season. But he did six times from 2021-23 and allowed 18 hits and six runs (five earned) in 36 innings for a 1.25 ERA to go with nine walks and 38 strikeouts. Four of those starts were at Yankee Stadium and he had a 1.88 ERA. Wacha will be making his first postseason start since he was a Cardinal in 2015.
“Those three are very schooled and stick to a plan,” Scout 1 said. “The wild card in that bunch is Ragans because he is a power guy. He is going to try and bully you. Yet, he has feel and knows what he is doing. He can elevate a fastball and go down with his curve and changeup. Not an easy at-bat.”
In this way, it is possible to believe that Aroldis Chapman can still hurt the Yankees in October. On June 30, 2023, Kansas City traded Chapman to Texas for Ragans. The lefty already had endured two Tommy John surgeries and the Rangers wondered about his durability. But since he made his first start for Kansas City on July 15, 2023, Ragans has thrown the 15th-most innings in the majors with the third-best FanGraphs Wins Above Replacement.
In his one start vs. the Yankees in that time, last month in The Bronx, Ragans allowed three hits and two runs in six innings.
The schedule
By dismissing the Orioles in two games, the Royals had two off-days before Game 1. Then there is an off-day between Games 1 and 2. Then again between Games 2 and 3. And then again between — if necessary — Games 4 and 5.
It means that the Royals need just their three main starters. Brady Singer is good. But one of his worst starts of the year came June 11 when he permitted seven runs (six earned) in 5 ²/₃ innings against the Yankees.
Against Kansas City’s three main starters, Aaron Judge is 1-for-28, Jazz Chisholm Jr. 1-for-18, Anthony Volpe 0-for-11 and Gleyber Torres 4-for-29.
The star
Bobby Witt Jr. is almost certain to finish second to Judge for AL MVP. The last time there was a postseason encounter between players who would finish 1-2 for the MVP? That was 1980 when Brett won and Reggie Jackson finished second.
There is a pretty strong argument Witt is the best all-around player in the game — hitting, power, speed and defense at shortstop.
And he certainly did not wilt in his first playoff action. In eliminating the Orioles, Witt had the game-winning RBI in each of his first two postseason games. The only other player to do so was Jimmie Foxx for the Philadelphia A’s in Games 1 and 2 of the 1929 World Series.
“Every year, it feels like he slows down the game more,” Scout 2 said. “I was kind of curious to see if his first big [playoff moments] scared him. And it was pretty clear against Baltimore that he was calm, not scared.”
Witt has hit .338 in his 17 career games vs the Yankees, which includes a current 12-game hitting streak (20-for-49, six extra-base hits).
Witt is the engine to a top-heavy lineup that Scout 2 described this way: “They are in go-mode from the outset. They step into the box and they are hunting fastballs.”
There is a commonality between the Yankees and Royals lineups and how much they depend on their two best players. Remove Witt and Salvador Perez (the last Kansas City link to its 2015 title) from the Royals’ regular-season results and the slash line is .232/.290/.368. Remove Judge and Juan Soto from the Yankees and the slash line is .233/.302/.375.
So there will be intrigue in who can limit the stars best and how much each team simply does not let those stars beat them and, thus, whose supporting cast rises. Which brings us to …
The wild cards
Vinny Pasquantino incurred a fractured right thumb on Aug. 29. From thereafter, Kansas City averaged an MLB-low 2.9 runs per game for the rest of the regular season. The lefty-swinging Pasquantino healed better than expected and was the DH vs. the Orioles — yet even in winning, the Royals managed just three runs in two games.
“For me, one big X-factor is [second baseman and lefty hitter Mike] Massey,” the executive said. “He was a very key hitter with Pasquantino out of the lineup. He must hit righty pitching for them to have a deeper lineup.”
Both scouts and the executive concurred on the importance of the Royals running game — and notably Maikel Garcia’s role in it.
Scout 1: “Does he get on base? That’s not a sure thing. He is very streaky. But if he does, he causes problems.”
Witt was 31 out of 43 in steals. Garcia was 37 of 39 — and 14-for-14 stealing third. Kansas City tied Tampa Bay for the AL lead in steals of third (Royal Dairon Blanco was 10 of 14 doing so). And no one should be surprised if Kansas City lays down some bunts to test Chisholm, who is still a third base neophyte.
“They can really run, something I see them trying to exploit with the Yankees,” the executive said.
Conversely, the addition of Chisholm to Volpe and the presence of Jon Berti and Jasson Dominguez gives the Yankees more speed than in recent years. However, the Royals allowed an MLB-low 58 bases stolen with the lowest success rate against (67 percent).
The pen
Kansas City’s 4.27 bullpen ERA was 22nd through July. So at the trade deadline, Kansas City acquired Lucas Erceg from the A’s and Hunter Harvey from the Nationals. Harvey was bad then went on the IL with a back injury. Erceg, though, has the best relief WAR in the major leagues since Aug. 1, settling in as the Royals closer.
Just as vital for this Division Series, considering the Yankees issues vs. lefties, southpaws Kris Bubic and Sam Long have emerged as major weapons, including helping the Royals produce 7 ²/₃ scoreless relief innings against Baltimore. And Kansas City has two other lefty relievers on a roll: Daniel Lynch, who has thrown 20 ²/₃ scoreless innings since returning to the team in late August, and Angel Zerpa, who has been scoreless in his last nine outings.
Since Sept. 3, through the playoffs, only the Guardians and their terrific group have a better pen ERA (2.29) than that of the Royals (2.52).
The mindset
The Royals lost a franchise record-tying 106 games last year. It is the most ever before making the playoffs the following season. The organization deserves praise for adding payroll and making shrewd moves to get 86 wins and their first postseason appearance since winning it all in 2015.
They didn’t just accept it as time for a bow. They then beat the Orioles, marking the first time a 100–loss team won a playoff series the following year.
But was this as much about Baltimore? The Orioles were 36-40 since July 5 and lifeless in the two games at home against the Royals. Is there something larger going on here with Baltimore, which has played 45 innings of postseason ball the last two years — and led in one while going 0-5?
Will the Yankees represent a step up in weight class that finally undoes the upstart Royals, who were just 2-5 against the Yanks this season?
Or does the starting pitching, strange schedule and speed make Kansas City a Royal pain for the Yankees?