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Fresh polling of the seven swing states widely seen as deciding factors in the presidential election holds good news for Donald Trump.
The 1,598 likely voters Ipsos polled in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin rate the Republican nominee better in key areas than Democratic candidate Kamala Harris.
These impressions give context to an overall 1-point lead for the former president in the swing-state survey, encompassing states with a total of 88 electoral votes.
For starters, battleground voters are more than twice as likely to see the vice president as in thrall to the political establishment than they are the former president.
Thirty-five percent of respondents believe Harris is part of the current system, while just 16% make the same assertion about Trump.
And though voters believe Harris is the establishment candidate, they also discount her lack of experience compared with the former president, again by a more than 2-to-1 spread.
A whopping 47% of respondents credit Trump with more experience; just 21% believe Harris is the more seasoned selection — a seemingly damning dismissal of her nearly four years in office.
Beyond the impressions, a number of issues play to the former president’s strength, not least of which is immigration.
By 48% to 33%, battleground voters trust Trump over Harris to handle the undocumented aliens whose presence has multiplied amid a porous border and diffident enforcement from the Biden-Harris administration. With 1 in 3 voters seeing immigration as a top-three issue, this is a meaningful metric.
On war and terrorism, Trump is also the pick: 42% of voters favor his approach, while 32% believe Harris is better suited to handle global conflict.
Economic issues also go the Republican’s way, with 43% favoring the stewardship they saw during the prosperity of the pre-COVID era against 37% who embrace the Harris vision.
A third of all respondents (and 46% of Republicans) identify inflation (or is it Bidenflation?) as the top issue in this election, suggesting the devalued dollar represents an area of weakness for the Democratic candidate.
And ironically, given Harris has framed herself as a “prosecutor” of her opponent’s foibles, voters marginally trust Trump more to handle crime and corruption, 38% to 37%.
With these factors in play, it’s worth noting that people who haven’t chosen a favorite yet in this poll are leaning toward the Trump Restoration, with 50% saying they want the Republican in office when forced to choose and just 33% selecting Harris.