Municipal politics has its own rules, and today’s game plays into our mayor’s hands
Things are suddenly looking up for Mayor Jyoti Gondek.
Her approval rating’s still deep in the dumpster and unlikely to crawl out any time soon. So most Calgarians conclude her re-election chances in 12 months match that famous snowball’s journey into hell.
But they’d be wrong, because a path for Gondek to win in 2025 is emerging.
That’s because municipal politics has its own rules, and today’s game plays into our mayor’s hands.
Of course, Jeromy Farkas hasn’t declared he’s running. But then the sun doesn’t bother issuing a news release before rising in the east each morning.
It was Farkas, you’ll recall, who finished second to Gondek three years ago. That, by his own admission, sent the former Ward 11 councillor into an emotional tailspin. His had been the lone opposition vote in a regular 14-1 tally approving the agenda of then-mayor Naheed Nenshi. Farkas was the ultimate outsider.
No, Farkas isn’t the hard-nosed, right-wing politician of three years ago. We’ll see if that gains him more votes than he loses.
Yet, McLean wasn’t the real target. That was Sonya Sharp from Ward 1, who has offered the most lucid opposition to Gondek and those councillors relentlessly backing the mayor. This was obvious when, on social media, Farkas named Sharp, alongside Gondek, as voting for that silly $87-billion climate emergency future spending pledge.
Why? Sharp might challenge for the mayor’s job and is therefore a potential Farkas rival. (Didn’t I say the election has started?)
Jeff Davison, the other serious mayoral contender in 2021, will also run. He hasn’t officially declared either, but he’ll be the Tory establishment’s choice, as opposed to either Farkas or Sharp.
Perhaps McLean himself fancies a run at the job. Why not?
Being so disliked brings an odd benefit for Gondek. It encourages various rivals to throw their hats into the ring. Except there could be so many hats that this election rivals a milliners’ convention.
Imagine a ballot featuring Gondek, Farkas, Sharp, Davison and McLean. Civic unions will fund and vote for the mayor, as might NDP supporters, of which there are many in Calgary these days. Plus, some simply tick the name they recognize.
In 2001, Dave Bronconnier won with 28 per cent of votes in a four-horse race. Make that five (or more) horses and Gondek could be re-elected with one-in-four ballots cast.
This same arithmetic works at the councillor level. In Ward 11, a cabal of Farkas imitators in 2021 split the vote, allowing Kourtney Penner to triumph with 28 per cent of ballots cast. It could repeat citywide.
Also, imagine Sharp and McLean run for mayor, leaving their seats open. Two progressive types slide up the crowded middle and win. The so-called Hateful Eight becomes the Terrible Ten.
Gondek and friends are far from done.
Chris Nelson is a regular columnist.