MILWAUKEE — Pay no attention to the oddsmakers, the experts or the pundits (the other ones, anyway).
Disregard the season records, which favor the Brewers over the Mets, too. Overlook the extremely recent matchup of these very two teams in this exact place, which also favors the Brewers.
Even ignore the analytics now.
Throw it all out.
Yes, these little ol’ overachieving, underdog Mets, who weren’t expected to play into October by almost anyone but their bold baseball leader and are expected by a majority to be knocked out here in this wild-card series, can surely beat these big bad beermakers.
(Fairly, this is MLB’s smallest market and the Mets obviously play in the biggest one. But on paper and on the field, for the most part, this Brewers team, runaway winners in the NL Central, is the one that looks closer to a powerhouse now!)
It isn’t going to be easy, Mets fans. But it can be done.
That Mets honcho who liked their chances from the start, David Stearns, just might be the best in the business judging by his results his first year in Queens. But unfortunately, he spent most of the previous seven years here building the very juggernaut of a team the Mets need to play now (he was only a consultant that last year before his contract finally lapsed and he was allowed to leave for his hometown Mets). And, frankly, he did too good a job for Milwaukee for his own good now.
I mentioned this to Mets manager Carlos Mendoza, and Mendoza responded, “I’m just glad he’s on our side now.”
The Mets actually have a lot going for them, even if the scouts see them as the likely loser of this first-round matchup. Reason No. 1 for their belief is that these experts, to a man, express great admiration for the Brewers. Reason 2 is that some believe the Mets may be spent after fighting so hard just to get here.
Here’s one National League scout on the Brewers. (Look away for a sec, Mets fans.)
“They are good. They play baseball. They run, they bunt, they situational hit, they are solid fundamentally on defense. They don’t make many mistakes. Pitching is better than expected. I would be very surprised if they don’t beat the Mets,” the scout said.
But what about the Mets? Belying the league’s highest payroll, they scrape and scrap. They do whatever they can, and that’s why they came back strong after starting 0-5, after falling to 11 games under .500 and frankly, after looking dead in the water (and that has nothing to do with the hurricane that came, added to the immense drama and prolonged their season by a day).
“The Mets make too many mistakes [in my opinion],” the scout said. “They also have too many wasted ABs. The Brewers give nothing away, they compete all game. The Mets just don’t have the type of grit [in my opinion]. The Mets are hot and cold, the Brewers more consistent. If the Mets were really hot I might have a different take, but I think they are out of gas. I think they got lucky [Monday in Atlanta] with a couple of innings late.”
OK, well, that’s one opinion.
As someone who’s been following them for 162, I see a few more positives, and even reasons why they can pull off this upset. Here’s goes …
1. Francisco Lindor is great even with a bad back.
He said he was hurting and tired while circling the bases after hitting maybe the biggest home run in Mets history and helping the Mets clinch October in a classic of game No. 161. He maybe isn’t the league MVP (it’s hard to see Shohei Ohtani being anything but unanimous now), but he’s the best shortstop in the league, he came within one steal of pulling off becoming the second shortstop to post back-to-back 30-30 seasons and he solidified everything since Mendoza moved him to leadoff in May. He is also a leader who lives up to the Mr. Smiles nickname and make the clubhouse a happy place (Brandon Nimmo gets half credit there).
2. The Mets pitching isn’t in as terrible shape as it could have been.
Luis Severino was spared from the farcical finales and is a worthy Game 1 starter, and Sean Manaea and noted Brewers killer Jose Quintana are ready to go in Games 2 and 3 (if needed). Edwin Diaz said he is probably “down” for Game 1 after throwing 66 pitches the previous two days, but they came out of the troublesome twin bill better than anyone figured.
3. The pressure is off after getting where almost no one expected them to be.
You could feel the tension the first couple games in Milwaukee last weekend (the Brewers won two out of three to make it 5-1 for the season vs. the Mets, which doesn’t mean a thing.) Mendoza advised them to play with a smile, but that could not have been easy against the nemesis Braves, their tormentors for decades. But while they haven’t been much better here, it feels like a big burden’s been lifted.