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The College Football Playoff field is three times larger this season, necessitating the creation of new markets to satiate a football-crazed betting public.
Bettors and sportsbooks are adjusting to the first year of the 12-team CFP in real time. And just like any market, when things are new, inefficiencies can creep into play.
That’s true for the “Undefeated” futures market in college football, which is what I’m targeting this week.
The Big 12 earned a reputation as a pass-happy league over the past 28 seasons. But for the most part, the conference was ruled by Oklahoma, which won half of the league titles between 1996-2023.
The Sooners’ exit, along with that of Texas, paved the way for potential mayhem in 2024.
Five teams received first-place votes in the preseason media poll and all of them have already suffered at least one loss through the first five weeks.
Iowa State came in sixth in the preseason pecking order, but the Cyclones have proven they can bring one thing to the table that no other team in the conference can on a regular basis: defense.
Ranking ninth in SP+ defense, they’ve been spectacular against the pass, allowing just 102.5 yards per game through the air. Opponents have thrown just one touchdown against them. There is a No Fly Zone above Ames, evidenced by the Cyclones’ seven interceptions.
On the season, Iowa State has allowed just 29 total points across four games. Under the tutelage of former Broyles Award finalist Jon Heacock, the defense gives the Cyclones a very high floor.
This bet, however, is predicated on more than just the defense.
The schedule breaks in such a way that you don’t need Iowa State to run the table to extract value from their current number.
Their home/away slate is ideal while missing potential landmines against No. 17 BYU and the always-dangerous Colorado Buffaloes.
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According to the KFord Ratings, Iowa State will be favored in each of its next six games. As of Monday, the Cyclones are a favorite of three or more points in all six.
This manageable path leads to a pair of ranked matchups in late November. A road trip to Utah and a home finale against Kansas State await Matt Campbell’s team. But the timing of those two games provides Cyclone-backers with excellent hedge opportunities.
Beating Utah and Cam Rising in Salt Lake City would be a Herculean task, but Rising continues to battle with an injury to his throwing hand. Stitches have made it nearly impossible for him to get a proper grip on the football.
Without Rising, Utah is decidedly mortal, even at home. Freshman Isaac Wilson has struggled in Rising’s stead, throwing more interceptions than touchdowns while completing just 52.6 percent of his passes in conference play.
A win at Utah would set the stage for the most meaningful Farmageddon in the 107-year series history.
If the Cyclones were to enter undefeated, it’s reasonable to assume they would be at least three-point home favorites over K-State, once again providing a simple hedge opportunity for anyone holding an ISU undefeated ticket.
Among Power Four teams, Iowa State is ninth in the undefeated market, sandwiched between Tennessee and UNLV.
Recommendation: Iowa State to finish regular season undefeated (+960, FanDuel)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Mike Calabrese is a handicapper for the New York Post, with a sharp focus on college sports. His betting advice often centers around situational spots, including travel, rest and altitude disparities.