Historical numbers suggests Saskatchewan NDP Leader Carla Beck will not upset Premier Scott Moe in the 2024 Saskatchewan election.
It’s the kind of bravado one expects from an Opposition leader days before a general election call. What else would she say?
It’s just not very realistic — at least, not according to historical numbers.
Moreover, the online survey of 806 people from Sept. 10 to 12 further suggested 55 per cent of Saskatchewan voters are in the mood for a change of government — great news for any opposition party going into a campaign.
But before New Democrats start measuring for new drapes in cabinet ministers’ offices at the legislature, perhaps they need to ask themselves this: Why isn’t the polling showing the NDP well ahead? And why does the very same poll suggest 50 per cent of those surveyed think the Sask. Party will win? (Only 17 per cent said they think an NDP win is possible.)
It’s likely because most instinctively understand that it’s really, really hard to go from where the NDP are, at 14 seats, to forming government.
The NDP would have to win 17 more seats for the slimmest 31-seat majority in the 61-seat Saskatchewan legislature. That means taking 17 seats away from the Sask. Party while holding onto all your own seats.
Sure, it’s possible. But gains of this magnitude remain a once-in-a-generation thing in Saskatchewan politics.
Even the Sask. Party’s meteoritic rise to power after its formation in 1997 took three elections: adding 14 seats to its nine-member caucus in 1999; stalling a bit in 2003 by adding another three members, and winning government in 2007 by picking up 10 more seats.
The Sask. Party chipped away at a crumbling NDP government. But there aren’t many signs yet to suggest that the Sask. Party bedrock is crumbling. In fact, the past votes suggest the Sask. Party base remains rock solid.
In 2020, there were only 14 seats won by less than 1,000 votes on either side. Of those 14 “close” seats, six were won by New Democrat candidates and two others — Regina Coronation Park and Regina Walsh Acres — were won by the NDP in byelections last year. (It should be noted, however, that the Sask. Party took Athabasca — one of those closer seats — in a February 2022 byelection.
There are new electoral boundaries, but few think it will help the NDP all that much.
Based on the “closest” 17 wins by the Sask. Party on the old 2020 seats, the average margin of victory was 1,432 votes.
Conversely, consider the Sask. Party’s “best” 31 ridings in 2020 to put it in majority government territory. It won its best 31 seats by an average of 3,708 votes — the closest being Jeremy Cockrill’s 2,546-vote win in The Battlefords. The NDP didn’t win a single seat by that by much, although Beck’s 2020 margin of victory in Lakeview was 2,545 votes.
The Sask. Party won 33 seats in 2020 by at least 2,500 votes.
Sure, Beck and the NDP will do better — perhaps gaining 10 seats or more.
But the historic numbers just don’t bode well for Beck’s aspirations of becoming premier after this election.
Mandryk is the political columnist for the Regina Leader-Post and the Saskatoon StarPhoenix.
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