“While crime rates in the city may not have significantly declined, the overall rise in crime across Canada has influenced (Regina’s) relative position.”
The numbers may not lie, but there are nuances to consider when deciphering crime rates and what they mean for Saskatchewan.
When it comes to CSI rankings, the lower the better.
However, the Regina Police Service (RPS) cautions that numbers can be deceiving if not considered in the proper context.
“Regina is generally a safe city, with a small percentage of the population committing the majority of crimes,” says an emailed statement from RPS strategic services manager Amy Balfour, who added that crime stats should always be “interpreted carefully.”
“Rankings provide context but don’t fully capture local dynamics, socioeconomic factors, or police efforts.”
In July, RPS Deputy Chief Trent Stevely said the city’s national rank was “encouraging” since Regina has been much higher on that list in past years.
However, the province-wide data suggests a more troubling pattern. Saskatchewan took the cake with the worst provincial crime rate in the country for the 25th year in a row, primarily due to an increase in violent rural crimes such as assault, domestic violence and firearm offences.
CCJS’s annual reports analyze all police-reported crime to provide insight into trends across the country. The index assigns value to different categories of criminal activity based on severity and sentences imposed by courts.
Regina placed ninth-highest among the 35 census metropolitan areas covered in the CCJS report, which represents progress over its third-place ranking in 2020 and fifth in 2022. Saskatoon ranked eighth in the country for crime severity, a slight improvement from sixth in 2022.
Both prairie cities saw higher volumes of violent crime in 2023, such as homicide.
Meanwhile, the country’s national crime rate increased by three per cent over 2022, when there was a two-per-cent increase for the third consecutive year.
“While crime rates in the city may not have significantly declined, the overall rise in crime across Canada has influenced (Regina’s) relative position,” explains Balfour.
Taking a broader view, University of Saskatchewan professor Mark Olver — an expert in forensic psychology — says national crime rates have actually plateaued, with “little peaks and valleys,” after steadily decreasing for the last five or six years.
In other words, it hasn’t gotten significantly better or worse.
“It’s probably not realistic to eradicate crime altogether because violence and aggression is endemic to the human species,” notes Olver. “There will always be something present.”
That said, national rankings alone are not necessarily indicative of more or less criminal activity.
Crime statistics can be impacted by many factors, including specific police initiatives and target areas. As one hypothetical example, Olver cites a police crackdown on household partner violence as something that could increase reported crime rates.
“You could see more police arresting people for that category of act, even if the actual amount of household violence isn’t increasing,” explains Olver. “If attention (rises) because of some public mandate … then the amount of arrests in that category can also increase, and then the crime rate can increase as a result.”
On the flip side, Olver noted that crimes associated with marijuana plummeted after legalization in 2015.
Meanwhile, something like a drug epidemic can adversely impact crime rates.
“If you have, say for instance, a methamphetamine epidemic, you could have an increase in bizarre and unusual crimes like assaults and theft,” says Olver.
RPS agreed, noting that societal issues like poverty, drug use and housing instability contribute to higher crime rates by creating conditions that may lead to criminal behaviour.
“These factors often push individuals toward crimes of necessity or drug-related harm,” says Balfour.
Social movements such as “Me Too” can also affect crime rates because more people might be motivated to speak out about violations like sexual abuse.
So, why the plateau?
Olver believes rehabilitation techniques may be one reason, noting there “hasn’t been a big increase in correctional treatment programs at the provincial level” while federal correction centres offer rehabilitation programs like “healing lodges.”
“There seems to be a bit of a service gap in terms of treating and providing rehabilitation services and supports for people who commit crimes,” says Olver, adding that better services are available now compared to 20 years ago.
Back in the ’90s, there were “enormous developments” in rehabilitation services within correctional institutions, which he says contributed to a decrease in non-violent and violent crime across the country.
Despite efforts to indigenize services and offer cultural supports, Olver says more needs to be done to prevent repeat offenders from committing more crimes, especially at the provincial level.
“I think we’ve plateaued,” he says, “especially as services are becoming less available.”
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