Homebuyers hoping for a flood of homes to hit the market from aging baby boomers might be disappointed by the results of a new survey.
Among boomers who own homes, 54% say they never plan to sell the house they live in, according to a poll from Clever Real Estate.
Now in the age range of 60 to 78, boomers account for 21% of the US population, yet they own 38% of the country’s homes, according to Freddie Mac data from 2022.
Their disproportionate hold over the housing market is understandable since homeownership rates tend to rise with age, up to a certain point.
Historically, those rates begin to decline at age 75 as homeowners begin downsizing, with many eventually moving in with family or to assisted-living facilities.
But most boomers, it seems, have no interest in downsizing as they age.
That’s despite the fact that nearly two-thirds of boomers who own homes said they expect to profit more than $100,000 if they sell their home, while 40% expect to clear $200,000 or more.
Explaining their reluctance to sell before they die, more than three-quarters of boomer homeowners say owning a home is the primary reason they’re financially secure.
And nearly half said they would consider themselves failures if they didn’t own a home.
If the boomers are to be believed, their reluctance to sell their homes could reverberate through the housing market for years to come.
Constraints on the supply of homes for sale have been a major issue in the US housing market, sending home prices to a new record high over the summer.
The supply of homes for sale at the end of July was 1.33 million units, which equals a four-month supply at the current sales pace, according to the National Association of Realtors®.
Although that’s up 20% from a year ago, it remains well below the six-month supply that economists say represents a balanced market.
“Any additional pinch on the supply of existing homes that results from older generations holding on to them for longer would be unwelcome news,” says Realtor.com® senior economist Joel Berner. “New-home supply, on the other hand, would make up a larger share of the for-sale market in this scenario and buyers may find more affordable new builds.”
The survey also found that just 47% of boomers said they had required a double income to purchase their home, a state Berner called “striking.”
Half of boomers who have owned a home said they had bought their first one for $75,000 or less, while almost two-thirds (64%) paid less than $100,000, the survey found. And only 6% of boomer homeowners said their biggest challenge when buying their first place was that homes were too expensive.
While those figures don’t account for inflation and rising wages, they paint a picture of a generation that faced fewer hurdles to homeownership than young buyers do today, as high home prices, elevated mortgage rates, and limited supply all combine to make conditions difficult for first-time buyers.
“The financial environment that younger generations are facing as first-time homebuyers is vastly different than what their parents and grandparents faced,” says Berner. “However, it’s unclear if 54% of a generation of homeowners reporting that they’ll live in their home until they die will have a meaningful impact on existing-home supply. Regardless of the severity of this specific challenge, home prices relative to income are a major hurdle for young families.”
Despite this, a whopping 42% of boomers surveyed said they believe younger generations have an easier time than they did buying a home in their 20s.
In their defense, for a period of years in the late 1970s and early ’80s, surging home prices and mortgage rates in the high teens did combine to create the worst homebuying conditions on record, just as many boomers were in their late 20s and early 30s.
In that case, however, conditions improved significantly after a few years and supply was not a major constraint for young homebuyers. It’s unclear whether a similar resolution is in the cards for the young first-time buyers of today.