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The top of the ACC is trash.
Florida State is in a free fall. Clemson got blown out by Georgia. Virginia Tech lost to Vanderbilt. N.C. State lost to Tennessee by 40.
Louisville is 2-0 against unworthy opponents (Jacksonville State and Austin Peay).
Pitt is 3-0 but with two lucky fourth-quarter comeback wins. North Carolina should’ve lost to Minnesota in Week 1.
On top of that, the entire conference is 0-4 against ranked non-ACC foes.
However, one team is starting to separate itself from the Atlantic Coast garbage heap.
The most impressive ACC performance in the young season is Miami’s blowout win over Florida.
The Gators aren’t very good, but the Hurricanes embarrassed them in Gainesville behind 380 yards and three touchdowns from quarterback Cam Ward.
Ward is the top Heisman contender (+450, FanDuel), leading the FBS in Pro Football Focus’ passing grades (93.1) and touchdown passes (11), while ranking behind only Mississippi’s Jaxson Dart in yards per dropback (11.3).
Miami can run the ball with Oregon State transfer Damien Martinez (47 percent success rate), the defense ranks second nationally in Havoc rate (23 percent), and the special teams are borderline elite.
Still, Ward is the primary reason the Hurricanes lead all FBS teams in net EPA per play (+0.72).
He does have an Achilles heel, however, and that’s Havoc. His adjusted completion percentage drops almost 20 points from a clean pocket to a pressured one, where he’s far more vulnerable to turnover-worthy plays.
Luckily, Miami’s ACC schedule features defenses likely to finish around or below the national average in Havoc rate.
The Hurricanes face two talented defensive fronts in Virginia Tech and Florida State, but both are vastly underperforming, and the games will be played at home. Miami doesn’t play Clemson and its talented defensive front.
The biggest challenge will be at Louisville, as Ward must handle stud defensive end Ashton Gillotte in a hostile environment. But the Hurricanes have a bye the week before to prepare.
With the rest of the ACC crumbling, Miami has the quarterback-schedule combination to emerge from the mess. I project them as favorites in every remaining game, including by double-digits in every contest save for Florida State and Louisville.
Recommendation: Miami to win ACC (+135, DraftKings).
Big 12: Watch out for Iowa State
I bet Iowa State to win the Big 12 in the preseason at 11/1, and I’m unsure why the odds haven’t changed.
They returned 19 starters from last year’s squad, which won five of seven games once Rocco Becht took over as the quarterback.
Becht was the Big 12 Freshman of the Year in 2023, and two of his top three wide receivers and all of his starting offensive linemen are back. Matt Campbell’s defense returned nine starters from 2023, and the secondary looks formidable.
Over the past three seasons, Iowa State went 1-6 in games decided by four or fewer points, so it seemed reasonable the Cyclones could win the Big 12 if the returning production improved and their close-game luck flipped.
They finally earned some of that luck, pulling out a fantastic one-point win against Iowa’s vaunted defense on the road in Week 2. Meanwhile, other notable Big 12 results from Weeks 1 to 3:
- Utah quarterback Cam Rising suffered another injury.
- Kansas State’s secondary was burned by Tulane.
- Oklahoma State should’ve lost to Arkansas.
- UCF’s secondary got torched by TCU.
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Yet, all those teams still have shorter Big 12 championship odds than Iowa State. I have the Cyclones power-rated as the Big 12’s top squad, and the eye test confirms that thus far.
Recommendation: Iowa State to win Big 12 (11/1, Caesars).
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Tanner McGrath has been a professional sports handicapper since 2018. Specializing in college sports and baseball, he’s a diehard fan of the Vermont Catamounts, the Miami Marlins and any home underdog. He found himself on the wrong side of the Miami Miracle in 2018, but made up for it four years later by hitting a 40/1 long shot on Sandy Alcantara to win the NL Cy Young.