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After three weeks of mostly non-conference games in college football, teams across the country are starting to enter league play.
Miami and quarterback Cameron Ward are coming off big weeks. Ward, now the Heisman Trophy favorite (+450, FanDuel), threw for 346 yards and five touchdowns in a 62-0 win over Ball State on Saturday.
While it’s nice to compile stats against inferior opponents early in the schedule, conference play is where lasting Heisman Trophy moments are made.
Let’s look at the Heisman race heading into Week 4, focusing on the evolving betting markets.
Week 4 Heisman Trophy odds
| Player | Week 4 Odds | Week 3 Odds | Week 4 Opponent |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Ward (Miami) | +450 | +750 | South Florida |
| Jalen Milroe (Alabama) | +600 | +1000 | Bye |
| Jaxson Dart (Ole Miss) | +600 | +950 | GA Southern |
| Dillon Gabriel (Oregon) | +900 | +1200 | Bye |
| Nico Iamaleava (Tennessee) | +900 | +1200 | Oklahoma |
| Carson Beck (Georgia) | +1400 | +1800 | Bye |
| Miller Moss (USC) | +1800 | +1800 | Michigan |
| Will Howard (Ohio State) | +2000 | +2000 | Marshall |
| Ashton Jeanty (Boise State) | +2000 | +2800 | Portland St. |
2024 Heisman Trophy predictions
Quinn Ewers climbed to as high as +500 to win the Heisman last week following Texas’ impressive win over Michigan.
For the first quarter against UTSA on Saturday, he continued building a strong case with two passing touchdowns. Unfortunately for him, he suffered an abdominal injury, leading to Arch Manning taking over under center.
The Longhorns aren’t incentivized to rush Ewers back to the field, given Louisiana-Monroe is on tap this week. Ewers dropped to 10th on the FanDuel odds board at +2200, two spots ahead of Manning (+2500).
Such is life in the world of this incredibly volatile betting market.
While Manning put up five total touchdowns against UTSA and will be leading news in the college football world while Ewers is out, I don’t see a path for him to the Heisman, with Ewers’ status being week-to-week.
Ward is putting up impressive numbers, with 11 touchdowns to just one interception through three games. However, I can’t help but criticize the team’s lack of serious competition.
The Hurricanes beat Florida, a team poised to collapse in on itself, Florida A&M from the FCS, and Ball State, who finished 4-8 in the MAC last year.
Ward can put up huge numbers against lackluster defenses in the ACC, but the Hurricanes only play one ranked team for the rest of the year. Will that weak schedule be held against him by Heisman voters? That likely depends on the strength of his competition.
Alabama’s Jalen Milroe (+600) and Ole Miss’ Jaxson Dart (+600) have moved into the top three of the Heisman race.
Milroe is coming off an electric performance in a road win over Wisconsin, and he’s up to 14 total touchdowns for the season. As he continues to gain comfort in Kalen DeBoer’s offense, his upside is sky-high for the remainder of the season.
Meanwhile, Dart leads the country with 1,172 passing yards with 11 total touchdowns.
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The Rebels have another opportunity for Dart to put up huge numbers this week against Georgia Southern before beginning conference play in the SEC.
He’ll have some opportunities for signature wins later in the year with games against LSU, Oklahoma and Georgia.
I wrote about Dillon Gabriel as a buy-low candidate at +1200 last week. After Oregon beat Oregon State 49-14 on Saturday, his odds have dropped to +900.
Gabriel had three touchdowns in the win, and he has a massive game in a few weeks against Ohio State that could have major implications for his Heisman contention.
Ultimately, there isn’t anyone I’m rushing to back in this market now. I’d look to fade Ward as the current favorite, but there isn’t enough value on Milroe, Dart or Gabriel at the moment.
I’ll continue to monitor this market and search for value down the line.
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Jacob Wayne handicaps college football and the NFL for the New York Post. He’s up 84.5 units across the two sports with a 6.27% ROI.