AP
In the early 1990s, college football media members fell in love with the phrase, “Great teams don’t rebuild, they reload.”
That remains true today for perennial powers such as Ohio State and Georgia.
But when you venture off college football’s beaten path, you find scores of programs in dire need of a true rebuild.
That was true of Texas State in late November of 2022.
The Bobcats joined the FBS ranks in 2012 and posted just one winning season in the next eleven years.
Jake Spavital embraced the opportunity to rejuvenate this moribund program when he took over in 2019.
But a 13-35 record got him axed in 2022. Texas State wasted little time targeting his replacement.
G.J. Kinne, a former collegiate standout at Tulsa and journeyman quarterback at the pro level, had earned a reputation as an offensive genius.
After stops at Hawaii and UCF as an OC, Kinne became Incarnate Word’s head coach.
His offense at IW set the world on fire, generating 581 yards (second in the nation) and 51.5 points per game (first) during a run to the FCS semifinals.
His quarterback, Lindsey Scott Jr., accounted for 71 total touchdowns while winning the Walter Payton Award.
Incarnate Word, nestled in northeast San Antonio, is right down the road from San Marcos.
Texas State wasn’t about to let a rising star in its own back yard get away.
Kinne produced fireworks immediately, helping Texas State win eight games.
The offense finished top-30 nationally in scoring, rushing, passing, and red-zone touchdown percentage.
They were a finely tuned machine, capable of exploiting any weakness in their opponent.
Ismail Mahdi proved to be one of the most dynamic running backs in the country, gobbling up 166.8 all-purpose yards per game (first).
The Bobs receiving corps was deep and talented and major question marks along the line are now a point of strength heading into 2024.
The great news is that a huge chunk of that offense returns (six starters) and they welcome in 2023 SBC Player of the Year quarterback Jordan McCloud from James Madison.
The rare intra-conference transfer gives Texas State the chance to be even better offensively this season, which would have been unthinkable just two years ago.
If they find a way to score more than they did in 2023 (36.7 ppg), will their defense improve enough for them to vault from minor bowl contender into the College Football Playoff discussion?
Kinne has confidently asserted that the defense can be “really good” this season.
Compared to what is the real question.
Last season, this unit was a disaster, making for countless shootouts.
It yielded nearly 33 ppg (112th), finished 100th against the pass, and graded out 119th in tackling per PFF.
But continuity and a few key transfers have them primed to improve under first-year defensive coordinator Dexter McCoil Sr.
Betting on College Football?
- Check out the best College Football betting sites
- Read our expert’s guide on how to bet on College Football
- Get the latest College Football National Championship winner odds
The entire starting defense is comprised of juniors and seniors, including All-SBC preseason picks Ben Bell at defensive end and Kaleb Cupp at safety.
Bell was a big part of the Bobs havoc-minded defense, which forced 108 tackles for loss last season (third).
The Sun Belt still relies upon a divisional format, so scheduling matters quite a bit.
The Bobs avoid Appalachian State and James Madison out of the East, and draw UTSA and Arizona State at home early on.
Win those two and a trip to the College Football Playoff isn’t out of the realm of possibility for this college football turnaround story.
Recommendations: Texas State SBC champion (+400); to make CFP (16/1).