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The MLB trade deadline has come and gone, and once again it was a doozy.
So many players switching teams drastically changes the outlook of the league, drastically changing how we can bet on said teams.
Here’s how I’m betting on a few after their deadline moves (odds via DraftKings):
NL wild-card race
The Padres and Mets impressed me at the deadline.
San Diego dealt for a monstrous impact reliever in Tanner Scott and a slightly less impressive reliever in Bryan Hoeing.
Sure, the Padres overpaid (four top prospects), but Scott is among the best relievers in baseball — he’s posted a 1.18 ERA with 53 strikeouts across 45 innings and is currently on a 17-game scoreless outing streak.
I’m unsure if San Diego needed reliever help, given its original core ranked in the league’s top half in reliever fWAR (2.6).
Still, there aren’t many other areas to improve the team, considering the lineup smashes (sixth in wRC+), the Dylan Cease-Matt Waldron-Michael King trio has been formidable at the top of the rotation and the defense is excellent (fifth in DRS).
Similarly, there weren’t many areas for the Mets to improve their squad.
The lineup is clicking on all cylinders, the bullpen has a high ceiling — even if it’s inconsistent — and they’re better defensively than the metrics indicate, especially with Francisco Alvarez calling the shots behind the plate.
The Mets could improve only in the rotation, so they acquired Paul Blackburn from the A’s.
Blackburn won’t blow you away, but he’ll provide 100 slightly above-league-average innings and take the pressure off guys like Jose Quintana and Sean Manaea.
Joe Musgrove is also due to come back from injury in the second half for the Padres.
I believe the Mets and Padres will earn the final two NL wild-card spots, and am willing to bet on both possibilities.
I also think the Padres are dangerous in the NL West, considering the Dodgers are handling injuries across the lineup (Mookie Betts, Max Muncy).
They’re worth a flier to narrow the 4.5-game deficit, especially with the third-easiest remaining schedule in MLB.
Recommended bets:Mets to make the playoffs (-115); Padres to make the playoffs (-160); Padres to win the NL West (12/1)
AL West race
The Astros wildly overpaid for Yusei Kikuchi, but the left-handed starting pitcher has shown much promise this season.
Increased fastball velocity has helped up his strikeout minus walk rate (20 percent).
Pairing him with Hunter Brown and an ever-improving bullpen gives the Astros a strong run-prevention unit.
We know the lineup will continue mashing behind Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez and Jose Altuve — Alex Bregman is trending up lately, too (129 wRC+ over the past month).
The Mariners bought heavily at the deadline, snagging two bats and two relievers for six prospects. They’re tied atop the AL West with Houston and want the division title.
But I don’t think Seattle’s moves make it better than Houston.
The Mariners’ best trade deadline piece is Toronto’s Yimi Garcia, who dominated as a relief arm north of the border.
But the Mariners don’t need more pitching — they need hitting.
I don’t think Randy Arozarena and Justin Turner move the needle enough.
The Astros rank top 10 in every hitting metric, while the Mariners rank bottom 10 behind Julio Rodriguez’s ever-disastrous plate discipline (28 percent strikeout rate, five percent walk rate).
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Do we think two aging veteran bats hitting in a reduced run environment will put them over the top? I don’t think so.
If the Mariners fall behind in the AL West race, I wouldn’t be surprised if they fall out of the playoff picture entirely.
I don’t think they have the bats to compete with the Twins, Royals and Red Sox.
Baseball Prospectus’s PECOTA projections give the Astros a 70 percent chance of winning the AL West and the Mariners a 30 percent chance of making the playoffs.
That gives us plenty of value in two futures markets.
Recommended bets: Astros to win AL West (-105); Mariners to miss the playoffs (+105).