If they lose Quebec riding, it could spell disaster for the future of the party
What’s in a byelection? These days, a lot. The Liberals’ loss in the supposedly safe seat of Toronto—St. Paul’s in June sent shock waves through the party. The riding had been Liberal red for decades, most recently under cabinet minister Carolyn Bennett who held it for 27 years with an average margin of 30 per cent. This time, Conservative candidate Don Stewart eked out a win by 633 votes, or 1.71 per cent, prompting intense speculation on the future of Liberal leader Justin Trudeau and some of his key players, including Deputy leader Chrystia Freeland.
Now the Liberals are gearing up for another pair of byelections, in the Quebec riding of LaSalle—Emard—Verdun and the Manitoba riding of Elmwood—Transcona, both to be held Sept. 16. The first contest appears to be a three-way split between the Liberals, the Bloc Québécois and the NDP, while the second pits the NDP against the Tories. The results could thus be pivotal not only for the Liberals, but for the opposition parties as well.
But the NDP and Conservatives have a lot on the line as well. If the NDP pulls off an upset in Quebec, they will be seen as giant killers. However, they need to also defend Elmwood—Transcona to deflect a blue wave that threatens to eat into their blue-collar base in Manitoba and across the country.
If the Tories don’t win Elmwood—Transcona, it won’t be the end of the world. But if the Liberals fail to capture LaSalle—Emard—Verdun, the consequences will be severe. Caucus morale will plummet and more Liberal MPs will choose not to run again. The cumulative effect will make the Liberal leadership a poisoned chalice, scaring off candidates who could revitalize the party, and condemning it to third party status or worse. Trudeau needs to ask himself if that’s really the legacy he wants to leave.
Postmedia News