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The main card for UFC 304 kicks off in Manchester, England, on Saturday with five bouts, including a title fight between Leon Edwards and Belal Muhammad.
Edwards and Muhammad will knuckle up to determine whether Edwards can defend his welterweight belt for a third consecutive time after successfully beating Kamaru Usman and Colby Covington.
In the lightweight division, the newly branded King Green will take on one of the UFC’s rising stars, Paddy Pimblett. “The Baddy” has logged seven consecutive wins, including a unanimous decision over Tony Ferguson, one of the most accomplished lightweight fighters.
Let’s analyze and make predictions for both bouts:
Edwards vs. Muhammad
The two battled in 2021, when an incidental eye poke from Edwards resulted in a no-contest.
Muhammad was in substantial pain and visibly upset that his long-awaited opportunity had ended prematurely.
Edwards was ahead in that bout before the eye poke, as Muhammad was not unleashing his usual strategy of pressuring opponents with his unique feints and punching combinations.
Edwards landed a big head kick and some impressive counterstrikes, so Muhammad must approach this fight differently.
Muhammad has strung together a five-fight winning streak, including decisions against sixth-ranked Gilbert Burns, eighth-ranked Sean Brady and ninth-ranked Stephen Thompson.
Neither Edwards nor Muhammad has elite knockout power, with each logging just one knockout or TKO in their past eight fights.
This bout likely will go the distance, so it will be up to which fighter scores more points.
Despite a slow start for Muhammad in his last fight against Edwards, he has a huge statistical advantage in significant strikes landed per minute, which could be a kryptonite for a fighter such as Edwards, who enjoys disengaging, picking his spots and controlling fights with a slower pace.
Further, Muhammad knows now that fighting at a slower pace is much more advantageous to Edwards, so he should push the pace on him.
In that environment, Muhammad has value at +220, which implies a win probability of just 31.25%.
Green vs. Pimblett
Green’s past two fights were not necessarily inspiring.
He beat 40-year-old Jim Miller by unanimous decision and was knocked out in the first round by lightweight Jalin Turner, who is currently ranked 13th.
Still, Green is one of the most experienced fighters in the UFC and has a proven record of halting young, surging fighters in their tracks, evidenced by his first-round knockout of Grant Dawson, who was 20-1-1 entering the bout.
Meanwhile, Pimblett recorded his first significant win over Ferguson.
Nevertheless, Ferguson has been declining for several years, losing seven consecutive fights after dropping a bout to Pimblett. This will be one of the first true UFC tests for Pimblett.
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Despite being 5-0 in the UFC, Pimblett was gifted a win against Jared Gordon, and three of his other four wins were against unranked and largely unknown fighters.
Additionally, Ferguson’s steep decline in the past few years makes Pimblett’s win over him mean slightly less.
Green has a substantial experience advantage, fighting some all-time greats throughout his long career.
Furthermore, his 6.45 significant strikes landed per minute relative to his 3.75 significant strikes absorbed per minute tells us a convincing story: Green is a much better boxer than Pimblett and won’t have to worry about Pimblett’s ground game because of his strong takedown defense.
This fight will help Pimblett in the long run, but he unlikely will come away with a win, even if it is in front of a home crowd.
Recommendations: Belal Muhammad moneyline (+220, BetMGM) | King Green moneyline (-115, BetMGM).