AP
“Some things are so unexpected that no one is prepared for them.”
— Leo Rosten
Before the All-Star break, it was hard not to notice Cincinnati’s Rece Hinds, who won NL Player of the Week honors in his first week in The Show and was subsequently the most added player in ESPN leagues.
In his first seven big league games, Hinds went 11-for-26 (.423) with five homers, 11 RBIs, seven runs, two stolen bases and a 1.657 OPS.
Nine of those 11 hits, all of which came in his first six games, went for extra bases.
That is the most in major league history.
Only one of his home runs fell shy of 400 feet, and the one that did was a 397-foot grand slam.
His average home run distance was 438 feet with three traveling 449 feet or longer.
Not even Nostradamus could have predicted this kind of start to Hinds’ career.
He showed off his power and speed in Triple-A before being called up — hitting 13 homers with 41 RBIs, 38 runs and 12 stolen bases — but he was also batting .216 with a 38.4 percent strikeout rate and .698 OPS.
Considering he hit .244 while striking out 34.9 percent of the time with a .790 OPS over five seasons (322 games) in the minors, it seems unrealistic to expect anything close to what he has done over his first 28 career plate appearances in the majors.
Let’s also not overlook the fact Hinds was pretty fortunate to play the first seven games of his career against the two worst pitching staffs in the majors.
He first faced the Rockies, a team that entered Friday with a league-worst 5.61 ERA and .289 opponents’ average, and has allowed 121 homers before squaring off against the Marlins, whose pitching staff had the second-worst team ERA (4.60 ERA) in the first half.
Let’s see how Hinds fares against the Nationals, Braves and Rays (his next three opponents), who surely will attack him differently.
It is easy for fantasy managers to salivate over eye-popping numbers like Hinds’ 52.6 percent hard-hit rate, 96.2 mph exit velocity and a 31.6 percent barrel rate, all of which would be among the best marks in the majors.
But those numbers don’t erase his 25 percent strikeout rate, 3.6 percent walk rate or his insanely high and unsustainable .429 BABIP.
It also doesn’t hide the fact he has played in just seven games!
Also, what happens when TJ Friedl returns from his hamstring injury?
There are questions that need to be answered, but the evidence supports this being an exciting and surprising hot streak.
If there is someone in your league who believes this is more than just a red-hot stretch, sell high.
Otherwise, just ride out the streak — assuming the All-Star break wasn’t a momentum-killer for the 23-year-old.
Betting on Baseball?
- Read our how to bet on baseball guide
- See sign up bonuses from the best baseball betting sites
- Check out the latest World Series Odds
Roto Rage would sooner pick up an outfielder like the Rockies’ Brenton Doyle (44.6 percent rostered), who smashed eight homers and drove in 15 runs in his first 13 games this month while hitting .422 with 10 runs scored and a 1.576 OPS.
He hit .311 with 10 homers, 23 RBIs, 14 runs and a 1.069 OPS in 24 games since June 18.
He also has 20 stolen bases on the season, 16 of which have come in 56 games since May 10.
Maybe Alec Burleson (54.1%), Brent Rooker (55.4%), Brendan Donovan (48.1%) or Heliot Ramos (45.6%) — who has hit .308 with 12 homers, 33 RBIs, 21 runs and a .955 OPS in 38 games since June 2 — are available in your leagues.
Big hits
Alec Burleson OF, Cardinals
Had at least one hit in 12 of his past 14 games, hitting .339 with five homers, 16 RBIs, two stolen bases, nine runs and a 1.032 OPS.
Jameson Taillon SP, Cubs
Won his first three decisions this month while maintaining a 3.38 ERA, a 17-1 strikeout-walk rate and .217 opponents’ average.
Colt Keith 2B/3B, Tigers
Entered July hitting .232, but has gone 17-for-46 (.370) with five homers, 13 RBIs, 14 runs and a 1.267 OPS over his first 13 games this month to raise his average to .253.
Ryan Pepiot SP, Rays
Hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in any of his past five starts, going 2-1 with a 2.22 ERA and a .163 opponents’ average.
Big whiffs
Adley Rutschman C, Orioles
Struggled in his 13 games before the break, going 5-for-46 (.109) with one homer, four RBIs, seven strikeouts and a .442 OPS.
Jake Irvin SP, Nationals
After going 5-2 with a 1.79 ERA and .184 opponents’ average in nine starts from May 22-July 4, he is 0-2 with a 10.80 ERA, .383 opponents’ average and four homers allowed in his past two outings.
Noelvi Marte 3B, Reds
Struck out in 32.8 percent of his plate appearances in his first 17 games this season while hitting .175 with a .463 OPS.
Jordan Hicks SP, Giants
In nine starts since his last win on May 19, he is 0-5 with a 5.57 ERA, eight homers allowed, 19 walks and a .302 opponents’ average.
Check swings
– Though he didn’t pick up a win in his first two starts off the IL, Blake Snell allowed no earned runs and just two hits in those outings. He struck out 11, had a 16 percent swinging strike rate and .056 opponents’ average in those starts. A sign of things to come in the second half?
– Though he is walking 3.16 per nine this season, Taj Bradley was 3-1 with a 1.07 ERA, 53 strikeouts, a .187 opponents’ average and 13 percent swinging-strike rate in his past seven starts before taking the mound Saturday. He walked 15 in that stretch.
– Tyler Stephenson was the most added catcher in ESPN leagues this week after going 11-for-33 (.333) with four homers, 10 RBIs, seven runs and a 1.171 OPS in eight games before the break.
– In 18 starts before the break, the Astros’ Ronel Blanco allowed more than three earned runs in a start twice. He went 9-4 with the sixth-best ERA (2.56) and WHIP (0.97), the best opponents’ average (.169) and 8.3 strikeouts per nine. Unfortunately, the 30-year-old appears to have gotten lucky, as he also had the fifth-highest walk rate (9.8 percent), allowed sixth-most homers and has an xERA (3.56) a full run higher than his actual ERA. His FIP (4.42), xFIP (4.21), strand rate (86.3 percent) and BaBIP (.178) all point to second-half regression.
– Michael Toglia, who struck out in 31.3 percent of his first-half plate appearances and hit an ugly .197, went deep seven times in 10 games before the Midsummer Classic, and 12 times in 28 games since June 15.
Team name of the week
Chunky Muncy