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Across America, student enrollment in traditional public schools is plummeting to lows not seen in generations. Yet many states, cities, and districts stubbornly cling to a bloated staffing and organizational model ill-suited to today’s realities.
We collected data on 9 of the 10 largest urban school districts and their states. We found that policymakers have embraced funding models that insulate school districts from the fiscal implications of dwindling student enrollments — a risky divorce from prudent budgeting.
Even as enrollments fell, costs per student increased in New York City, Houston, San Diego, Dallas, Austin, Philadelphia, Chicago, San Antonio, and Los Angeles. According to the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), the number of public school teachers was 11% higher in 2021 (3.8 million) than in 2011 (3.4 million).
Following these trends, the student-to-teacher ratio fell in Chicago, Dallas, Philadelphia, Houston, and San Antonio because of declining enrollment. For reference, from 2013-2022, cities such as Philadelphia and San Antonio witnessed overall enrollment declines of nearly 17%. Enrollment in Chicago declined 21%. Furthermore, NCES reports that public schools spent an average of $14,789 per pupil in 2020, an increase of 9% from 2010.
Previously, the high costs associated with hiring more teachers posed a barrier to rapidly reducing class sizes. But as enrollments plummet while staffing levels hold steady or even increase, a leaner student population is enabling lower student-teacher ratios organically. Many school districts have also simultaneously bolstered non-instructional support staff in recent years. For instance, in Dallas, total staff increased nearly 30% overall from 2013 to 2022. In Philadelphia, this figure is closer to 13%.
This staffing and budgetary model raises a fundamental policy question: if more money is going to be spent on public education, where should the money go? Put differently, do students do better in schools with smaller classes or with better teachers who are paid more?
The case for retaining current teacher and staff surpluses in many large urban school districts rests on shaky empirical foundations regarding class sizes’ influence on educational outcomes. While smaller student-teacher ratios have become embedded policy over decades, academic performance has failed to improve commensurately. Rigorous studies yield conflicting results — with impacts ranging from negligible to modest gains isolated among certain pupil segments.
However, the high cost of reducing student-teacher ratios raises doubts over whether the marginal benefits justify such expense. Analysis from the Brookings Institution suggests increasing the pupil-teacher ratio by just one student in the US could unlock $12 billion in annual salary savings alone. Such a fiscal windfall could theoretically enable higher compensation to attract more talented educators — potentially delivering better learning outcomes at a lower overall cost basis than ongoing class size reductions.
Despite questions over efficacy and affordability, efforts to rightsize student-teacher ratios face formidable political headwinds as vested interests entrench a “new normal.” Teachers’ unions, emboldened by parental sympathy for smaller class sizes, are powerful lobbies resisting departures from current budget and staffing models. Reformers face an uphill battle.
The steep decline in traditional public school enrollment has multiple drivers, though their relative influences are debated. The COVID-19 pandemic and growth of homeschooling options have clearly accelerated families’ exodus. So too have shifting demographics as birth rates stagnate. But more fundamentally, parents increasingly appear to be voting with their feet against the traditional public system itself. Data shows private school, charter school and homeschooling parental choices are all rapidly gaining share amidst broad disenchantment.
NCES figures reveal charter enrollments surging from 5% to 8% of all students between 2010-2022. While a Brookings analysis finds the “private/home/non-traditional” segment grew from 9.2% of pupils in 2015 to 12.8% by 2022.
The competitive pressures of school choice, 21st-century forces are unleashing real disruption. Combine declining enrollments with the crisis in student attendance, the public education picture looks even bleaker.
Traditional public schools in America’s big cities need to up their game and regain parents trust. Otherwise, increased costs will likely be seen as unjustified, as more students head for the exits. No wonder then that former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg has called this a “wake up” moment for public education.
Daniel DiSalvo is a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute and professor of political science at the City College of New York-CUNY.
Reade Ben is an economic policy analyst at the Manhattan Institute.