Fresh polling from two electoral battlegrounds makes the case many surveys are lately: Getting shot was good for Donald Trump’s poll numbers.
“On the whole, there does seem to be some evidence of movement toward Trump in the post-incident numbers,” said Kevin Wagner, co-director of Florida Atlantic University’s Political Communication Lab.
But the political-science prof warns: “I would still be cautious about making any long-term predictions for now. Those numbers likely reflect some response bias and reflect a relatively smaller sample that is likely much more volatile.”
The surveys of Virginia and Georgia voters, conducted July 12 to 15 by FAU and Main Street Research, show the former president making up ground in the Old Dominion State, which he lost by 10 points to Joe Biden in 2020.
In the three-way-race model before the July 13 shooting, Biden led 42% to Trump’s 39%. He drew 77% of Democrats, and Trump got 78% of Republicans, while they tied at 34% each with independent voters.
Sub in Harris for Biden in last week’s poll, and the race looked roughly the same, with Harris leading 43% to 38%; 81% of Democrats and a plurality of independent voters back her.
In the post-shooting polls, the numbers differ for the three-way contest.
This week’s FAU/Main Street polls have Biden leading narrowly in Virginia with 43% support to Trump’s 42%. Biden still leads with independents, but Trump’s 88% of Republicans compares more than favorably with the 79% of Democrats backing Biden.
Put Harris in the mix for a hypothetical three-way, though, and Trump takes the lead, 41% to 40%. The veep loses 10 points among Democrats at 69% support, while Trump maintains his 88% with his own party.
One bright spot for Democratic partisans: This is better polling for them than another poll from in-state Virginia Commonwealth University, which showed Trump up 42% to 39% earlier this week as black voters appeared tired of ridin’ with Biden — support in that group went down 20 points to 46% since the last time VCU was in the field. The FAU survey shows 70% black support for Biden, with Trump at 12%, in third place with that cohort behind Kennedy, who is at 18%.
In Georgia, meanwhile, this poll suggests a static race.
In the three-way model before the shooting, Biden secured just 81% of Democrats, while Trump takes 89% of Republicans before the shooting, leading overall 46% to 40% in that scenario.
Harris does much worse in a Georgia hypothetical, behind Trump 49% to 38% even before the shooting, with only 72% of Democrats saying they would support her, and 11% backing the Republican nominee in that scenario.
After the shooting, the race still was essentially the same no matter who Democrats run. Trump led Biden, 44% to 37%, despite losing independents, as he held 88% GOP support compared to 80% for Biden.
Trump led Harris 46% to 38% after the assassination attempt, meanwhile, with 87% of Republicans backing him and just 77% of Dems backing the VP.
Though Biden outperforms Harris, enthusiasm to keep Biden on the ticket is weak for Democrats and his 2020 voters in both states.
In Georgia, 65% of Democrats and 60% of Biden 2020 voters want him to run again. Just 54% of Virginia Dems and 52% of those who voted for Biden last cycle want him to run again.