Houthi drone attack and Iranian nukes loom over Israel’s strategic future

As Israel grinds ever closer to victory over Hamas, it got hit Friday with reminders that Iran has more catspaws poised to strike: The next battle in the Islamic Republic’swider war against the Jewish state is just beginning.

The good news: It looks like the IDF took out a top Hamas leader last week, and the group is said to be increasingly open to some ceasefire-and-hostage-release deal that doesn’t require Israel to quit its Gaza operations.

Bad news: Friday saw a successful drone attack in Tel Aviv, claimed by the Houthi militia of Yemen, plus dozens more missiles shot from Hezbollah in Lebanon, while Secretary of State Antony Blinken says Iran is now only one to two weeks away from producing enough fissile material for a nuclear weapon. 

The drone, a long-range Iranian-made weapon, killed at least one and injured several others.

Early signs are that it got through Israel’s formidable surveillance systems thanks to human error, but it’s still a stunning blow for an Israeli defense establishment already reeling — and a sure signal from Tehran that the regime is laser-focused on keeping up attacks against the Jewish state. 

Meanwhile, ongoing Hezbollah attacks make war in the north seemingly inevitable.

Yet Hezbollah is better armed and more sophisticated than Hamas; even pushing it back from the border is a far more daunting proposition than Israel’s Gaza offensive. 

Especially given that the Israel’s population is already shaken and war-weary.

And while President Biden, who’s spent the better part of his first term empowering Iran and the better part of the Gaza war hindering Israel, certainly deserves a significant share of blame here, Israelis may well hold Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu responsible. 

Yet under Bibi or any successor, the key question is: How can Israel effectively deter Iran, especially if it joins the nuclear club, given the absence of any American will to do so?

Just waiting for Donald Trump to win in November and then hoping he adopts a policy of containment and pressure against the Islamic Republic isn’t enough: Tehran can do tremendous damage directly or via its catspaws between now and Inauguration Day. 

Biden’s continued weakness, in other words, risks a regional conflagration

Count it as one more reason he should quit the re-election race (at least), and focus on doing his job without domestic political calculations.

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