AP
The AFC South was a fascinating division in 2023, as the Texans, Jaguars and Colts were all in play until the final week of the NFL regular season.
Houston took the division with a 10-7 record as rookies C.J. Stroud and Will Anderson immediately changed their team’s fortunes.
Can Houston repeat as AFC South champs or will someone else claim the division?
Let’s take a look at each team and recommend a best bet (FanDuel odds to win the division in parentheses):
Texans (+105)
Stroud’s rookie season was impressive, but some negative regression looms for the quarterback.
Stefon Diggs provides excitement, but the 30-year-old receiver averaged less than 50 yards over his final 13 games with the Bills in 2023.
Though WR Tank Dell impressed as a rookie, his recovery from a leg injury and gunshot wound bears monitoring.
Houston also has some questions on defense after seven of its top 11 players in total snaps departed.
Denico Autry and Danielle Hunter should be immediate high-level starters on the line, but the Texans shaky secondary doesn’t look significantly improved.
I’m fading the Texans as they near the top of their market.
Jaguars (+270)
QB Trevor Lawrence had bad injury luck, dealing with a multitude of injuries, but none are expected to linger into 2024.
The receiving corps was remade with the acquisitions of Gabriel Davis and first-rounder Brian Thomas Jr.
The additions of linemen Ezra Cleveland and Mitch Morse will provide better protection for Lawrence.
The defense was middle of the pack but should be improved with Ryan Nielsen coordinating it.
Re-signing Josh Allen and Foyesade Oluokun helps the front seven maintain continuity. Arik Armstead will add pressure on the interior.
If you believe in Lawrence, there are reasons to buy the Jaguars. However, there isn’t enough value to win the division at +270.
Colts (+330)
The Colts were quiet in free agency but did re-sign several key players, including WR Michael Pittman Jr., DL DeForest Buckner and LB Zaire Franklin.
The team’s most significant “addition” is QB Anthony Richardson, who needs to stay healthy in Year 2.
Rookie Adonai Mitchell will join Pittman and Josh Downs in a receiver corps with tremendous upside.
The offensive line bounced back last season, and Jonathan Taylor seems poised to return to his All-Pro form.
Rookie Laiatu Latu offers impact pass-rushing production, but the Colts didn’t draft any defensive backs until the fifth round.
They’ll have to bank on internal growth to improve on last year’s poor showing.
Overall, I’m bullish on the Colts to win their first division title since 2014, especially with the seventh-easiest projected schedule.
Titans (+800)
Brian Callahan replaced Mike Vrabel as head coach, and the Titans signed several big-name veterans in free agency.
RB Tony Pollard and WRs Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd will be immediate starters. CB L’Jarius Sneed comes over after a career year in Kansas City.
First-round rookie J.C. Latham is projected as an immediate starter on what looks to be an improved offensive line.
The Titans lost four of their top seven defensive players in total snaps, but perhaps that’s a good thing after they ranked 28th in EPA/play. Dennard Wilson is a relative unknown as a first-time coordinator.
There’s a lot of changeover in Tennessee and QB Will Levis is coming off an underwhelming rookie season.
With the Titans owning the sixth-most difficult schedule, I wouldn’t talk you out of taking the Under on their 6.5 win total.
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AFC South best bet
The Colts are a high-upside team, with Richardson primed for a second-year breakout.
They finished 9-8 and were possibly a fourth-and-1 conversion away from a divisional title.
I’m backing them to win the AFC South (+330).
Bet: Colts to win AFC South (+330, FanDuel)