From the fallout after Saturday’s assassination attempt to his choice of J.D. Vance as vice-presidential candidate, the developments have serious implications for Canadian politics.
All these developments have serious implications for Canadian politics. Trump’s potential return to the presidency and his pick of Vance send a clear protectionist signal, potentially upending CUSMA and our automotive and agricultural sectors. Conversely, a Trump presidency could revive the Keystone XL pipeline, boosting Alberta’s oil industry. Stricter immigration and border security policies could complicate travel between the U.S. and Canada, and proposed deportation orders could prompt a flood of asylum seekers to head north. Lastly, Vance’s indifference to Ukraine and Trump’s disdain for NATO could radically alter the global geopolitical balance. Forget about Canada’s lagging two per cent contribution to NATO: we may need to pony up a lot more if the U.S. exits the alliance and demands a new North American defence relationship.
At the same time, many Canadian voters, in particular Millennials and Gen Z, will identify with Vance’s call to restore dignity and prosperity to the working class. On economic policy and class consciousness, Vance cuts a generational figure similar to Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, and if he is embraced by the American voter, he could reinforce populism north of the border. Would Trudeau want to stick around for that tsunami?
There are still four months to go in the race for the White House. But in one weekend, it has radically changed — for everyone.
Postmedia News
Tasha Kheiriddin is Postmedia’s national politics columnist.