Legislative, House races will yield some real contests in fall, some forgone conclusions

The California legislative and congressional district races on this week’s primary ballot fell mostly into two categories: those whose lopsided party registration means they were all but decided Tuesday and those in which November runoff battles are looming. A few fit in a third category: still too close to call.

Because the Legislature drew many political districts in California to favor one major party or the other, most of the contested primaries Tuesday are in the first group. Among them are elections for the state’s only two open congressional seats.

Termed-out state Sen. Jeff Denham won a four-way Republican primary contest to replace Rep. George Radanovich (R-Mariposa) in the Central Valley’s 19th Congressional District. Denham, with strong backing from Radanovich, finished with 36.4%, outpolling former Fresno Mayor Jim Patterson, former Rep. Richard Pombo — who was trying for a political comeback after his 2006 defeat in a neighboring district — and Fresno Councilman Larry Westerlund. Denham will face Democrat Loraine Goodwin in the strongly Republican district.

Former Assembly Speaker Karen Bass (D- Los Angeles) captured 85.3% of the vote for the other open seat, swamping three other Democrats in her bid to succeed Rep. Diane Watson (D- Los Angeles) in the 33rd Congressional District. Bass, an early supporter of Barack Obama’s presidential candidacy, was endorsed by many local political and civic leaders, including Watson. Bass will face Republican James L. Andion, who garnered 50.9% of the GOP primary vote over two others.

In the Venice/South Bay’s 36th Congressional District, Rep. Jane Harman (D-Venice) staved off a second primary challenge from teacher/peace activist Marcy Winograd, outpolling Winograd 58.8% to 41.2%. Winograd won nearly 38% in 2006, when she first challenged Harman in the solidly Democratic district. Republican Mattie Fein won 50.3% of her party’s vote over two competitors and will be on the fall ballot, as will Libertarian Herb Peters.

Some other districts that tilt strongly Democratic are the Southwest Los Angeles/Westside’s 47th Assembly District and the Venice/South Bay’s 53rd Assembly District, both of which featured heated primaries.

For the Los Angeles seat being vacated by Bass, Holly Mitchell, who heads a childcare advocacy organization, won 43.7% of the primary vote. Her closest competitor, Reginald Jones-Sawyer, a Los Angeles city asset manager, received 37.5%, while the three other Democrats got no more than 7.1% apiece. Also on the November ballot will be Republican Lady Cage and Libertarian Sean P. McGary.

The Venice/South Bay contest was among the most crowded in the state: Betsy Butler led a field of eight Democrats with 26.7%. A coalition of tort reformers, oil and insurance company interests spent more than $600,000 to try to defeat Butler, a former fundraiser for two environmental groups and Consumer Attorneys of California. Republican and “tea party” activist Nathan Mintz, Green Party member Lisa Ann Green and Libertarian Ethan Musulin will also be on the November ballot.

Among the relatively few primaries likely to produce competitive elections in the fall was the Central Valley’s 30th Assembly District, where Fran Florez, a former Shafter city councilwoman and mother of state Sen. Dean Florez (D-Shafter) defeated former Kern County Supervisor Pete Parra in the Democratic primary, 56.6% to 43.4%. Parra’s daughter, Nicole Parra, won the seat in 2002 and, when termed out in 2008, endorsed a Republican over Fran Florez, deepening a longstanding political feud between the two families. In November, Florez will face Hanford dairyman David Valadao, who defeated Bakersfield business owner Stephanie Campbell for the Republican nomination, 77.9% to 22.1%.

Hot primaries in strongly Republican districts included a three-way challenge to Rep. Gary Miller (R-Diamond Bar) in the 42nd Congressional District, which spans parts of Los Angeles, Orange and San Bernardino counties. There, Miller polled 49% of the GOP vote to defeat business owner Phil Liberatore, with 37.2%, and two others. Miller will face Libertarian Mark Lambert in the fall.

In Orange County’s 47th Congressional District, termed-out Assemblyman Van Tran (R- Garden Grove) won 50.1% of the vote to beat two other Republicans for the right to challenge Democratic Rep. Loretta Sanchez, also of Garden Grove. Democrats outnumber Republicans 46% to 31% in the congressional district, the only one in Orange County represented by a Democrat. The GOP is considering targeting the seat this fall.

Other congressional seats that may be targeted by the opposing party in November’s general election include those held by Reps. Mary Bono Mack (R-Palm Springs), Dan Lungren (R-Gold River), Ken Calvert (R-Corona) and Jerry McNerney (D-Pleasanton.)

The outcome in a few contests may not be known for several days as officials finish counting ballots. One close race was the Republican primary to succeed termed-out Assemblyman Chuck DeVore in Orange County’s 70th Assembly District. Community college trustee Don Wagner led Irvine City Councilman Steven S. Choi by nearly 900 votes Wednesday. Wagner had 32.3% of the vote to Choi’s 29.6%.

Even closer was the Democratic primary battle in San Diego/Imperial County’s 40th state Senate District between Assemblywoman Mary Salas of Chula Vista and former Assemblyman Juan Vargas. Salas led by about 300 votes Wednesday. Groups including business interests — among them oil and insurance companies — spent heavily in independent campaigns in an attempt to elect Vargas and defeat Salas.

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