Seven states. Seven Donald Trump wins. And a common thread among all of them.
That’s the “red wave”-friendly finding of a YouGov poll released Monday: In surveys in the field between July 4 and July 12, the Republican is leading Joe Biden in every battleground state.
And a common thread in all states — independent voters are making the difference for Trump getting pluralities or majorities in every contested state on the map.
In the survey of 900 Arizona registered voters, for example, Trump leads Biden 44% to 37% overall, with Biden taking 84% of Dems and Trump getting 89% GOP support.
Among independents, though, that 7-point lead stretches to 15.
Trump picks up 40% of indies, with Biden getting just 25%, and Robert Kennedy Jr. getting 12% in his own right.
This dynamic replays in the other six states, albeit with some variance.
In Georgia, Trump clings to a 44% to 40% lead over Biden. And both candidates hold serve in their own party: Biden takes 87% of Democrats, while 93% of Republicans back Trump.
Independents, meanwhile, back Trump 44% to 39%, with Kennedy taking just 9% of them.
In Michigan, one of three states where Biden’s campaign has said it intends to defend the “blue wall,” Trump is up by just 2 points: 42% to 40%.
Despite some expectations that Biden’s position on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict might repel Democrats, Biden is at 89% in his party, with Trump at 93% with Republicans.
But again, independents make the difference, with 40% of them backing the former president, just 27% ridin’ with Biden and 9% with RFK.
Trump likewise leads by 4 points in Nevada, 46% to 42%, and both candidates are well over 90% in their own party.
Yet again, when it comes to independents, Trump outperforms the state’s overall electorate — 46% to 35%, with Kennedy at 7%.
North Carolina tells a similar story, with a 44% to 40% race in favor of the 45th president.
Biden has 87% of Tar Heel State Dems, Trump has 93% of Republicans, and Trump is up again with indies — 39% to 34%, with RFK at 9%.
Pennsylvania follows the trend also.
Trump clings to a 3-point lead (43% to 40%) over Biden, who has 82% of Democrats compared with 90% of Republicans for Trump.
Yet with independents, Trump leads by 8 — 38% to 30%, with Kennedy at 7% among unaligned Keystone State voters.
Turning to Wisconsin, we see a state with arguably the most striking split among independents.
Trump leads overall, 43% to 38%, despite the fact he draws 0% of Democrats polled (with 85% saying they back Biden and the rest unsure or professing support for a marginal candidate).
Trump takes 93% of Republicans, however, and among independents, he crushes Biden — 44% to 26%, with Kennedy at 9%.
In an election characterized by messaging that drives base voters, with Democrats hewing to stern warnings about Trump’s, it would be advisable for the Biden campaign to find a way to appeal to those independents he spent 3½ years turning off.
But especially in light of the former president surviving an assassination attempt over the weekend and at the Republican National Convention Monday picking J.D. Vance for veep — a young man who knows how to code switch for different audiences, a talent that propelled him to a bestselling book and a Senate seat from previously swing-state Ohip — it may already be too late.