The Liberals now have 156 seats, the Conservatives 118, and the NDP 24. Together, this has been enough for the Liberals and NDP to push ahead with their shared agenda.
Jagmeet Singh’s NDP and Justin Trudeau’s Liberals have worked together for more than two years now to keep Trudeau in power. Is it possible that the two leaders will continue this scheme into the next federal election in October 2025?
My own best guess? It’s a distinct possibility, especially because we’ve seen such a scheme just now succeed in the election in France. Two parties — a leftist coalition and a left-of-centre coalition — worked together to defeat the right.
That said, much of the Conservative support is in rural ridings. Liberal and NDP support is still strong in the biggest cities, though not strong enough for the Liberals to hold off Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives in the June 24 byelection in the Toronto-St. Paul’s riding, which the Liberals had held for more than three decades.
Conservative Party of Canada candidate Don Stewart won with 15,565 votes, 42.1 per cent, beating out the Liberals with 14,932 votes for 40.4 per cent, and the NDP with 4,073 votes for 11 per cent.
What might have happened if, before the byelection, Trudeau and Singh had agreed that the NDP candidate drop out? Would the Liberal candidate have drawn enough NDP votes to topple Stewart?
It seems likely to have worked, no?
Such an agreement would make sense along ideological lines. Trudeau and Singh have similar views on numerous issues, from heavy government intervention in the economy to a plethora of social policy issues ranging from drugs and criminal justice to immigration and abortion.
The Liberals now have 156 seats, the Conservatives 118, and the NDP 24. Together, this has been enough for the Liberals and NDP to push ahead with their shared agenda.
Divided, it appears the Conservatives will hammer both of them in the next election, with Canada338 now predicting 213 Conservative seats, 72 Liberal seats and 18 NDP seats. But if the Liberals and NDP agree to withdraw candidates in winnable big city ridings, thus giving a push to leading Liberal and NDP candidates, could they unite to prevent the Conservatives from taking power?
Such an agreement seems unlikely given the proud and distinct history of both parties. In the face of that, however, I’ll again remind you that in the recent election in France, their own warring versions of our Liberal and NDP parties came together in the complicated run-off phase of the election. Hard left and left-of-centre parties withdrew candidates in almost one-third of the ridings in order to give leading left-wing candidates a better chance of winning. And on July 7 the plan worked to keep the right wing out of power.
The example in France got much attention in Canada, with some left-of-centre Canadians taking inspiration. “Here’s hoping the Liberal Party and the NDP are taking a page or two from France’s playbook,” said Roberto Faria, a Toronto brand strategist.
If Liberal and NDP backers hope to avoid seeing their policies emphatically and ferociously reversed in favour of a Conservative vision of Canada, the temptation to work together as seen in France could well feel like an imperative. But might such a strategy work on election day?
“Most (64 per cent) Canadians want a centrist government, but only 48 per cent say they think that is what Mr. Trudeau is offering. Only 13 per cent want a left of centre government — but 37 per cent say they think that is what the Liberals under Trudeau are offering. Mr. Trudeau’s biggest gap lies with those who say they prefer a centrist government that has a focus on economic and fiscal issues, people who could be characterized as centre-right. This is the largest segment of the voting public, representing 38 per cent of the electorate, and Trudeau trails Poilievre by 28 points among this group.”
“The Conservatives are poised to run the table in parts of the country where the Liberals have done well in the past,” said Bruce Anderson, chief strategy officer at Spark Advocacy.
Whatever Trudeau and Singh attempt, most Canadians want a correction, a move to the right. No matter what electoral manoeuvres the Liberals and NDP might concoct, I suspect the hunger for change will dominate the election and its results.