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The Nathan’s Famous International Hot Dog Eating Contest has quickly become an Independence Day gambling tradition.
Split into men’s and women’s competitions, the world’s top eaters assemble at the corner of Surf and Stillwell avenues in Coney Island to devour their way to $40,000 in prize money.
As an American passionate about gambling and hot dogs, this event has always been mandatory viewing for me.
I’m a proud former driver of the Oscar Mayer Wienermobile, and I’ve long embraced the cultural impact of the hot dog and the brave men and women who eat them for fame and fortune.
Competitively and otherwise, I’ve likely consumed more hot dogs than most lay eyes upon in a lifetime.
And thus, my Fourth of July is never complete until I’ve entered into the patriotic lather only this singularly American televised spectacle can provoke.
But since 2007, the men’s competition has become the gastronomical equivalent of Secretariat’s Belmont runaway in 1973.
Such is the dominance of Joey “Jaws” Chestnut.
The legendary American eater has left Coney Island victorious (almost) every year for a period spanning four presidential administrations. Chestnut has won 16 of the last 17 competitions.
To remember the world before his Nathan’s Famous domination is to remember the New York Knicks under head coach Isiah Thomas — ancient history.
But remarkably, this year’s contest will be without Chestnut.
After a sponsorship dispute last month, the event’s sanctioning body, Major League Eating, ruled him ineligible.
But just as an American eating god closes a door, he opens a window of gambling opportunity.
The betting market now suggests a two-man race in the men’s competition.
The -120 favorite at BetMGM is Massachusetts vocational high school teacher Geoffrey Esper.
Despite being a three-time runner-up to Chestnut in this event, the 49-year-old Esper’s odds have shifted this week based on the popularity of his foremost opponent.
At age 35, Australian James Webb is 14 years younger than Esper and the undisputed hot dog-eating champion of the Southern Hemisphere.
Webb is listed at +200 at DraftKings, suggesting he’s a very live ’dog indeed.
I certainly believe the more experienced Esper has the advantage in this contest, but rather than handicap the winner, I’m turning my attention to total ’dogs eaten instead.
Esper’s last three trips to Coney Island saw him consume 50, 47.5 and 49 hot dogs, respectively. His current total sits at 49.5.
Last year, Webb improved his 2022 performance by more than a half-dozen ’dogs, ascending to 47.5.
Such a marked improvement isn’t unusual for an eater who is less experienced but highly motivated, which explains his current total climbing from 46 to 47.5.
Despite hot and humid conditions on Thursday and juiced-up totals for both men, I know there’s but one way I can bet this event.
Deep in the mustard-stained reaches of my soul I’m reminded of the ancient proverb which tells us that “iron sharpens iron,” and the same is true of competitive appetites.
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To ring in our great nation’s 248th birthday, we’ll all bear witness to the first genuinely competitive men’s contest in ages, with $10,000 and national TV glory on the line.
Under those heady conditions, I like the younger Webb to continue his upward trajectory at this event and eclipse his total.
PICK: Webb (+200, DraftKings)
Matt Mitchell analyzes competitive eating for Action Network.