Oil production set for strongest year since 2018, say economists
Alberta has taken its share of knocks lately.
The turmoil comes amid an economy that has fallen short of expectations.
But brighter days are ahead, economists predict.
“Our forecast for a 300k/bpd increase in Alberta’s oil supply growth is a major contributing factor to Canada’s expected success as a global swing producer this year,” said the report.
TD expects Alberta will return to the upper end of the provincial growth chart with 1.9 per cent real GDP growth this year and 1.9 per cent next.
Deloitte Canada’s forecast is even more optimistic.
“The Alberta economy is benefiting from a population surge as Canadians from other provinces flock to Wild Rose Country is search of a lower cost of living,” said Deloitte in its provincial forecast.
“That and the opening of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion will keep Alberta growing above the national average, with GDP gaining 1.5 per cent this year and 3.3 per cent next year.”
The unemployment rate here has been the lowest in the country and affordable housing prices have helped shelter residents from the impact of higher interest rates and supported consumer spending.
TD forecasts the province’s real GDP will grow 1.7 per cent this year and 1.7 per cent next.
However, because Canada’s population is still growing faster than the economy, GDP per capita (or per person) is still falling, said CIBC Capital Markets economist Andrew Grantham.
- U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell joins a policy panel at the European Central Bank Forum on central banking in Sintra, Portugal
- Real estate boards for some of Canada’s biggest cities will release their home sales figures for June this week. The Calgary Real Estate Board is expected to release home sales today, while Vancouver is expected on Wednesday. Home sales for Toronto are expected on Thursday.
- David Rosenberg: Bank of Canada has nothing to fret about despite CPI hysteria
- FP Answers: What’s the best way to draw down our assets in retirement if we don’t want to leave a large inheritance?
- Why the Bank of Canada will wait until September for its next cut: Dawn Desjardins
