Fall to 575,420 in April after soaring past a million in mid-2022
Job vacancies shrank to pre-pandemic levels as the ongoing decline in openings paints a picture of a labour market that is tightening and an economy that is weakening, new data from Statistics Canada suggests.
“Canada’s payroll survey of employment showed that labour market slack continued to open up in April, as … job vacancies dropped off by 32,000,” CIBC World Markets economist Katherine Judge said in a note.
The drop in vacancies also means the number of unemployed people per job rose to 2.3 in April from 2.2 in March.
“The decline in vacancies suggests that businesses are slowing the pace of hiring, likely because of the slow economy,” Charles St-Arnaud, chief economist at Alberta Central, said in an email.
While the struggle to fill positions may be easing, the pressures of pay increases persist.
Payroll data released alongside the vacancy numbers showed that average weekly earnings rose 3.7 per cent in April from last year.
Whether employers are truly back in the driver’s seat remains to be seen.
Economists have been closely watching labour data for signs that the economy is fraying as Canadians pull back on spending to deal with higher interest and inflation rates that are squeezing their pocketbooks.
The labour force survey and the vacancy data are distinct because the latter does not include the agriculture sector, private employment or many self-employed positions.
Still, the drop in vacancies could start to play out in the broader market.
“It suggests we could start seeing weaker LFS employment gains in the coming months,” St-Arnaud said.
Now, National Bank of Canada is predicting a “demographic hangover” after Justin Trudeau’s Liberal government announced it was cutting back on the number of foreign temporary residents allowed into the country.
He estimates population growth will significantly slow to 0.7 per cent during the 2025-2027 period from a projected 3.1 per cent increase in 2024, allowing the country to catch up in areas such as infrastructure and housing. However, he predicts regional differences and is calling for population growth in Alberta and Saskatchewan of 1.5 and 1.6 per cent, respectively, from 2025 to 2027.
The national forecast, while much lower than the past two years, still beats the average of 0.4 per cent population growth for members of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, Marion said.
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