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The New York Islanders are in desperation mode.
Winners of two in a row and looking at a soft schedule coming up next week, the Isles need to continue to collect points if they’re going to stay relevant in the Eastern Conference playoff race.
Saturday’s contest with the Boston Bruins isn’t a must-win for the Isles, but getting two points in their pocket before a stretch of schedule that sees them play five non-playoff teams in their next six games could be a huge boost as we head down the stretch.
The Bruins are a -130 road favorite at the time of writing.
Islanders vs. Bruins prediction
(7: 30 p.m. ET, ESPN+)
Both the Islanders and Bruins are tricky to handicap for different reasons right now.
For the Bruins, it’s a question about whether their elite record is a fair reflection on how good they are right now. Boston has the third-best points percentage and goal difference in the NHL as of Saturday morning, but their process hasn’t been all that compelling of late. The B’s are 3-0-4 in their last seven contests and have gone beyond regulation in seven of their last eight.
The NHL regular season is full of peaks and valleys and Boston has earned the benefit of the doubt that this is just a blip, but it has been some time since the B’s looked like a Stanley Cup contender.
The Bruins can certainly round back into form in time for the postseason, but right now it’s worth considering that Boston is 4-3-5 since All-Star Weekend and has just two regulation wins in that span.
Boston’s 5-on-5 numbers during this malaise don’t really point to anything flukey, either.
They’ve essentially split the expected goals at even strength since the break and they gave up more high-danger chances than all but one team (Winnipeg) in February. Boston is creating chances, but this high-event style of hockey isn’t what you associate the Bruins with these days.
The Islanders are a different story.
Although they’re just 6-5-3 since Patrick Roy took over as head coach, it’s clear the Isles are improving in key areas. Most notably, the team has completely reversed course defensively.
The Islanders were one of the leakiest teams in the league under Lane Lambert, but nobody has allowed fewer high-danger scoring chances at 5-on-5 than the Isles since Feb. 1.
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All of this adds up to a game that’s pretty tricky to call.
The odds look just about right, but perhaps the simplest way to find betting value is back this contest to go to overtime.
The Islanders and Bruins have each played 22 overtime games this season, which is tied for most in the NHL.
The Bet: 60-minute draw (+350, FanDuel)