A recent survey of 600 likely voters shows former President Donald Trump holds a 2-point lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in Pennsylvania.
The results, from North Star Polling Research, come amid swirling rumors that Gov. Josh Shapiro may join Harris on the ticket as her running mate – a choice that could boost her popularity in the commonwealth but cost her in Michigan and Wisconsin.
Shapiro, who is Jewish, has denounced Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack on Israeli civilians and pushed university leaders to disband pro-Palestinian protest encampments at colleges across the state.
This, analysts say, makes him unappealing to younger voters opposed to Israel’s military campaign in Gaza.
“For Harris, she has to run the table on those Rust Belt swing states,” said John McHenry, who conducted the survey. “She can’t lose any of them and win the presidency.”
He added that running mate picks don’t generally make or break a presidential ticket.
“It’s pretty rare that the individual matters,” he said. “I think it tells more about the presidential nominee’s decision making process.”
Trump’s running mate choice JD Vance, McHenry said, likely “matters less than almost any other in recent history.”
“It says, ‘I’m ahead and I don’t need to reach so far towards the middle. I’m going to reinforce my base and this is a base pick,’” he said of Trump’s decision.
“He’s certainly not going to lose the presidency over JD Vance,” McHenry added. “By the same token, I don’t think Harris is going to win or lose based on who she picks.”
Harris already fares better with Pennsylvania voters, with or without Shapiro. McHenry’s polling shows she narrowed Trump’s 9-point lead over President Joe Biden held before he dropped out.
Most of that gain came from registered Democrats, though she “has a long way to go” on bringing independents into the fold.
Down ballot, however, Trump’s popularity hasn’t swayed support for Republican Senate nominee Dave McCormick, who trails incumbent Democratic Sen. Bob Casey 49%-41%.
McHenry said McCormick hasn’t yet appealed to certain parts of Trump’s electorate, including “soft” Republicans and working-class voters.
An attack ad his campaign published this week, however, “is exactly the right messaging to make that happen.”
In the advertisement, McCormick highlights Harris’ progressive record on criminal justice reform and immigration enforcement.
Elsewhere in the survey, more than half of respondents said Biden’s economic policies leave the middle class worse off, while 51% said their financial situation was better during Trump’s presidency.
Biden’s debate performance also turned off supporters, with 31% of respondents saying they were more likely to vote for Trump in the aftermath.
Trump’s attempted assassination boosted his support slightly, with 21% saying they were “more likely” to vote for him.
The survey was conducted from July 20 through July 23 with a 4% margin of error.