Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump is holding an edge against Vice President Kamala Harris in most of the states actually up for grabs in November. But the data suggest a strategic running-mate choice could help the Democrat in some of them.
That’s the takeaway from five fresh Emerson College surveys taken July 22 and July 23, the two days immediately after President Biden withdrew from the race.
“In Arizona, 49% support Trump and 44% support Harris. In Georgia, 48% support Trump and 46% Harris. In Michigan, 46% support Trump and 45% Harris. In Pennsylvania, 48% support Trump and 46% Harris. In Wisconsin, 47% support Harris and Trump respectively,” says the polling memo released Thursday.
In Arizona, Harris isn’t helped by 57% of respondents disapproving of Biden’s job performance.
An expanded field also hurts Harris. When Robert Kennedy Jr., Libertarian Chase Oliver, Green Party hopeful Jill Stein and Cornel West are factored in, Trump’s lead stretches: 48% to Harris’ 40%.
Harris could be boosted in the state by selecting Sen. Mark Kelly, a favorite of former President Barack Obama, as her VP, however, as 36% of respondents said the former astronaut would be her best selection. Whether he could deliver the state is a more open question.
Turning to the Peach State, Biden’s 51% unfavorability is also a drag on the likely Democratic nominee, whose deficit increases to 3 points in the expanded field. And it’s unclear any vice presidential hopeful will help her: Sen. Bernie Sanders, an unlikely choice, tops the hypothetical field with 17%.
Michigan presents some contrasts. Harris and Trump are tied at 44% in the expanded field, with the veep outperforming her two-way numbers. And the polling suggests she should name Gov. Gretchen Whitmer for the veep slot, with 27% of respondents picking Whitmer as their favorite running mate.
Pennsylvania is another battleground Harris may be helped in by picking the state’s governor, as 40% of respondents want the popular Josh Shapiro to be her running mate. Shapiro is +18 when it comes to job performance approval in the state, suggesting he could be a major boon.
Without Shapiro, Harris is down by 2 points to Trump whether in a two-way matchup or an expanded field, so a strategic pick may make the difference there.
Turning to Wisconsin, it’s notable the race is tied regardless of whether the matchup is polled as Harris-Trump or the expanded field.
Though there are differences among the candidates in the polling, there are also prevalent trends, including a gender gap.
In all five states, Harris leads with women and Trump with men. And in most cases, the candidate who is behind isn’t close. The Republican is up by double digits in all five battlegrounds with his own gender, and Harris leads by 9 or more points in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — the blue-wall states.
This polling also suggests the “double hater” phenomenon is in effect with Harris and Trump, regarded unfavorably along with Biden by more than 50% of respondents in all five states.
These polls track with previous battleground state surveys showing that swing states could go either way in November.
A North Star Opinion survey conducted between July 20 and 23 shows Trump up by 2 points in the Keystone State in a head-to-head battle with Harris.
A Landmark Communications poll conducted Monday in Georgia shows Trump with 45.8% support, just 1.5% above Harris in a six-way race.