Getty
An expanded College Football Playoff is going to open the door for a handful of candidates who otherwise would have been left out in the Heisman cold.
Why is the CFP so important when it comes to the sport’s most prestigious honor?
Because voters in the past have given preferential treatment to those competing for a national title.
In the past decade, seven of the 10 Heisman winners appeared in the four-team CFP. Lamar Jackson and Caleb Williams both put up video-game numbers and had their teams positioned in November to make the playoff before late-season losses derailed their national title hopes.
Last season’s winner, Jayden Daniels, made up for three regular-season losses by setting the record for total yards in an SEC game (606 vs. Florida).
He also became the first player in FBS history to pass for 350 yards and rush for 200 in the same game.
Needless to say, if you weren’t in the CFP, you needed to smash records to catch the attention of voters.
With the CFP expanding to 12 teams, a host of candidates now have the potential to swing votes in their favor. If a candidate’s team can nab one of the four automatic bids that come with a first-round bye in the CFP, their Heisman chances increase, which brings us to the Big 12.
Per CFP rules, the top four conference champions will all receive byes.
In all likelihood, that means an ACC or Big 12 champ could be ranked well outside the top four by the committee only to get assigned the fourth slot before the playoff begins.
This is an important wrinkle to understand because of Heisman voters’ historic preference for true title contenders.
If the new system had been in place in 2022, Kansas State would have used its upset of TCU in the Big 12 title game to vault from ninth in the committee rankings to fourth in the CFP pecking order in a 12-team field.
Had the Wildcats had a Heisman-worthy candidate that season, under those specific playoff conditions, that player would have become much more attractive to voters.
Well, K-State has such a superstar this season.
Avery Johnson is the highest-rated quarterback to ever sign with the Wildcats.
The three-sport star out of Wichita was targeted early in his recruiting process by Taylor Braet, KSU’s long-time recruiting coordinator and Wichita native.
The Sunflower State rarely produces more than two or three blue-chip recruits per cycle, so it was a stroke of luck that Johnson fell into the Wildcats’ laps.
When Johnson got a chance to play last fall, he was electric in relief of Will Howard.
He punched in five rushing touchdowns against Texas Tech and took home Pop-Tarts Bowl MVP honors in his first start, a 28-19 win over North Carolina State.
His running style out of the shotgun is reminiscent of a young Pat White. He can burn defenses on designed quarterback runs, read options and when passing plays break down.
The only question surrounding Johnson will be KSU’s new offensive staff. Coordinator Collin Klein — K-State’s beloved legend and former Heisman finalist — left to take lateral job at Texas A&M.
Get the lowdown on the Best USA Sports Betting Sites and Apps
- Check out the best sports betting sites
- Download the best sports betting app
Chris Klieman and his staff were able to retain Johnson with NIL riches being bandied about this offseason, which was a major coup.
Now, Klieman is putting his faith in OC Matt Wells to tailor the offense around Johnson’s evolving skill set.
Given the wide-open and potentially high-scoring nature of the Big 12 this season, I believe K-State will win the conference in exciting fashion, making Johnson’s 25/1 odds to win the Heisman more than alluring.
PICK: Avery Johnson wins the Heisman Trophy (28/1, Caesars)