The presumptive Democratic presidential nominee is showing signs of momentum in the days since President Biden decided not to run for a second term.
But strong fundraising, a well-attended rally, and endorsements from virtually every major Democrat not named Barack Obama haven’t translated to faith among the general public that Kamala Harris can win — at least not yet.
In a poll of 1,605 people (1,435 of whom are registered voters) YouGov conducted between July 21 and 23 — a period that encompasses Biden’s announcement not to run and the quick coalescence of Democratic elites around Harris — only 31% think the vice president has what it takes to earn a promotion this year.
And there’s no gender gap in pessimism about Harris’ prospects — that 31% applies to both males and females.
Conversely, 52% of respondents see Trump as the likely winner.
Democrats, predictably, give Harris whatever boost she can claim in this metric, with 67% of people in her own party saying the veep will win, another 14% predicting a Trump victory and the rest unsure.
GOP registrants are much more sold on their candidate’s viability.
Just 3% of Republicans surveyed expect Harris to win, while 91% think the race in November is Trump’s to lose.
Independents also seem to think Trump is inevitable, with 53% of unaligned voters believing he’ll emerge victorious, versus just 23% of indys who believe Harris will win.
One significant cohort believes Harris has what it takes, though — and they just happen to be, historically, the key to Democratic chances in national elections.
Forty-five percent of black respondents believe Harris will win, while just 33% predict a Trump triumph.
While voters may not believe Harris can win, it doesn’t mean they aren’t supporting her.
When asked about “presidential vote intent,” 41% of those polled back Harris — putting her just 3 points behind Trump, well inside the +/- 3.3% margin of error and tracking with polls from NPR and Marist that likewise show a race that is too close to call.
When it comes down to the other 15% in the YouGov survey, a third of them aren’t sure who they back, a third back Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and the rest are dispersed among a smattering of marginal candidates.
Trump has effectively consolidated Republican respondents in this survey, taking 92% of them, with 3% backing Kennedy and 2% backing Harris.
Democrats are still more diffused for the time being.
While Harris has a respectable 86% support level in her own party, 5% aren’t sure who they back, while Kennedy takes 3% and Trump takes 2% of Dems.
Independents are still up for grabs, but YouGov’s sample says Trump holds serve — taking 37% of them to Harris’ 32%. Of the remainder, 11% support Kennedy and 9% are still undecided.
Harris has majority support among black voters (63% to 14% for Trump), Hispanics (44% to 40%) and — in a potentially important metric that could swing battleground states — self-described “moderates,” with a 41% to 31% lead over Trump.
As Democrats might hope, a gender gap is also emerging in the preference poll.
Harris leads narrowly with women, 43% to 41%, with 7% of respondents up for grabs, Kennedy at 6% and minor candidates divvying up the remainder.
Male voters back Trump — but not by a majority. The former president is 8 points up on Harris (47% to 39%), with Kennedy at 5%. An additional 3% are not sure, and the remainder say they prefer other candidates.