Blue Jays vs Rays Picks and Predictions: Berrios’ Highway Woes Proceed

Blue Jays vs Rays finest odds

Blue Jays vs Rays picks and predictions

The stroll market is one the place there’s cash to be made, because the totals are both 0.5 or 1.5 and paying nice plus cash for the Over 1.5. As we speak, Berrios has a stroll complete of 1.5 paying +155 to the Over. With the best way he’s been pitching on the highway, that is my finest play tonight in a sport I feel he will get a protracted leash after the journey and bullpen use type final night time.

Berrios has issued not less than one stroll in 26 of his 29 begins so this plus-money play has legs already. He’s hit the Over 1.5 walks in 12 of his 29 video games this season and has had some management points over his final three begins.

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On the season, Berrios has a 67% strike charge, however over his final three turns, he’s throwing strikes at 59% with 5 walks. On the highway, Berrios has a 2.25 BB/9 and faces a Tampa group that sits within the prime half of the league in BB%.

With Berrios having a lot run on most of his pitches, even when he’s on, his stuff could be troublesome to find. 

Blue Jays vs Rays betting preview

Moneyline evaluation

The Jays opened as -135 favorites, however the market is shifting in the direction of the Rays — 10 factors as of writing. The early motion is probably going tied into the truth that the Jays performed an extra-inning sport in Philadelphia final night time whereas the Rays have been at residence vs. the Astros. The journey schedule will not be of their favor and neither are Berrios’ highway splits.

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Berrios has been greater than terrible this yr over 14 highway begins. Opponents are hitting .303 vs. him and have a 0.891 OPS. This additionally contains 17 residence runs throughout 72-plus innings. Over his final 5 highway video games, he’s allowed 13 runs, which embrace some strong offenses within the Pink Sox and Yankees. 

Santiago Espinal left final night time’s sport and is questionable for right this moment with discomfort in his aspect. The loss is a giant blow to the Jays’ protection at second base, and he provides high quality at-bats within the decrease third for the lineup. Lourdes Gurriel can also be on the shelf. 

The Jays are 16-35 SU of their final 51 journeys to Tampa whereas Berrios was a -160 residence favourite in his final begin vs. the Rays, which was additionally an opener scenario. That may make right this moment’s -130 line roughly 25 factors brief.

Over/Below evaluation

The Rays have seen only one complete above 7 over their final six video games, however tonight we’re seeing 7.5, which hasn’t moved since opening and leans to the Over. 

Berrios’ highway struggles assist assist an Over guess right here, whereas the Jays utilizing their finest aid arms in a blown save final night time helps mission for extra late-inning scoring. 

The Toronto offense scuffled vs. Zack Wheeler final night time however has been scorching over the past 30 days. They’re the second-best offense in baseball over the past 4 weeks with a 120 wRC+, a .263 batting common, and a .772 OPS. 

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Tampa doesn’t have a terrific offense and has been worthwhile to the Below this season, however getting Arozarena and probably Diaz again is very large, as they’re two of the group’s finest bats. The Rays know methods to play the matchup sport and have had success this season vs. Berrios throughout two begins — 14 hits and 4 runs over eleven-plus innings. 

Betting development to know

Blue Jays vs Rays sport information

Location: Tropicana Area, St. Petersburg, FL
Date: Thursday, September 22, 2022
First pitch: 6:40 p.m. ET
TV: Sportsnet, Bally Sports activities

Beginning pitchers

Jose Berrios (11-5, 4.99 ERA): Berrios will take his 6.19 highway ERA to the Trop the place he’s 0-2 over three begins with a 6.80 ERA over his profession. He has, nonetheless, allowed two or fewer earned runs in 5 of his final six begins, however the right-hander provides up a ton of hits (180 over 158 innings). He may need an extended leash after final night time’s extra-inning loss because the Jays attempt to shield the bullpen for a four-game set with Rays. 

JT Chargois (2-0, 2.76 ERA): Chargois was introduced as a late starter. This will likely be his third begin this season and he will likely be good for 3 to 6 outs earlier than handing issues over to the pen. He has a quite excessive FIP (4.95) and each video games he began this season have hit the Over simply. He’s seen the Jays simply twice this season and has allowed two hits over two-plus innings. 

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