We nearly at all times know what to anticipate when this week comes round: thick tough, excruciatingly tough scoring circumstances and course setup, and a winner that usually comes from a choose group of golf’s finest.
As such, our outright picks are highlighted by some big-time names, some coming into the week with nice type, others with stellar U.S. Open resumes, and one with each.
You are reading: U.S. Open Predictions: Xander Makes Main Championship Breakthrough
U.S. Open outright picks
Picks had been made on 6/14/2022 at 2:00 p.m. ET.
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U.S. Open outright picks
Among the many favourites: Xander Schauffele (+2,200)
I used to be absolutely ready to roll with Rory this week. He had been trending upwards since his last spherical on the Masters and it seemed like Brookline is perhaps the place to place all of it collectively within the type of a fifth main championship title. Nonetheless, placing the puzzle collectively got here one week untimely on the RBC Canadian Open.
Not solely is successful in back-to-back weeks an extremely tall activity for anybody (though Rory’s achieved it earlier than), however his odds have additionally taken a success. He was listed at +1,400 previous to his win over the weekend however is now on the board at 10/1.
With that in thoughts, we’re going to pivot to somebody who’s obtained about pretty much as good of a U.S. Open resume as you will discover for somebody who hasn’t gained — Xander Schauffele. On high of that, he’s obtained twice Rory’s odds.
Xander’s season has been a bit peculiar thus far, dare I even say disappointing to his requirements. Whereas the outcomes have remained principally regular, he’s seldom been across the hoop with an opportunity to win, even lacking the weekend on the PLAYERS and Masters. Nonetheless, he and his good pal Patrick Cantlay placed on a show en path to victory on the Zurich Traditional, and that may have been what flipped X’s change coming into the second pair of majors.
Since that dominant Zurich win, he’s gone T5 at Byron Nelson behind a stellar final-round 61, T13 at Southern Hills, and T18 at Memorial. And regardless of his comparatively quiet season total, his recreation holds up extraordinarily effectively statistically, rating ninth in complete strokes gained this season, together with marks of seventh from tee to inexperienced (+1.411 per spherical), twelfth on strategy (+0.719), and thirtieth across the inexperienced (+0.319), all extremely important to success at U.S. Open venues.
Now, to his U.S. Open resume. 5 profession begins to the tune of three Prime-5 finishes and nothing worse than… anticipate it… T7. Sure, final 12 months’s T7 at Torrey Pines is his worst U.S. Open end in 5 tries.
Additional to the outcomes themselves, Xander clearly has the psychological recreation wanted to not let a U.S. Open course get one of the best of him. Mix that together with his main championship pedigree and trending type and you’ve got the recipe for a winner in Brookline.
Sleeper to look at: Tony Finau (+3,500)
Tony Finau’s resume on the U.S. Open has been feast or famine over his six profession begins, rotating finishes of T14, solo-fifth, and T8 with missed cuts, together with final 12 months at Torrey Pines.
Nonetheless, like Xander, Tony has discovered some blistering type after being abnormally quiet for a lot of 2022. That type is three Prime 5s in simply his final 5 begins, together with runner-up finishes at each the Mexico Open and final week’s Canadian Open (held 54-hole co-lead).
When you transcend the highest tier on the chances board, you must begin speaking your self into guys, combining your self-belief with type, course historical past, or in any other case. You additionally need somebody who has a historical past of contending (and even successful) in opposition to golf’s hardest fields. Tony Finau does that.
He has 4 main championship Prime 5s amongst 12 Prime-15 finishes in 24 profession begins. And whereas not a significant, Finau gained THE NORTHERN TRUST throughout final 12 months’s FedEx Cup Playoffs, which ranked out because the second-toughest discipline in any non-major in 2021, behind solely the PLAYERS Championship.
Finau gained’t be petrified of the check and enters the week with a ton of fine vibes after going toe-to-toe with Rory and JT in Sunday’s last group.
Longshot value a glance: Brooks Koepka (+5,500)
Look, are Brooks’ days of successful a number of majors a 12 months behind him? Most likely. Nonetheless, with the U.S. Open and main championship profile that Brooks has, this quantity (+5,500 at BetRivers) is method too good to go up.
So, let’s get you caught up on BK’s historical past right here. In his final seven begins, he has two wins (2017, 2018), a runner-up (2019), and two T4s (2014, 2021). The 2 different finishes throughout that span are T18 and T13 in 2015 and 2016, respectively.
You would possibly say he’s off form however type not often issues for Brooks. As soon as he steps on the property for a significant, few guys change into extra of a pressure than him. Sure, he entered final 12 months’s U.S. Open just some months after a win in Phoenix, however he then missed three of 4 cuts (together with the Masters) main into Torrey Pines. He completed T4 that week after which completed T6 on the Open Championship just some weeks later.
His type this time round consists of a T12 at Valspar and a T5 at Dell Match Play previous to a missed reduce at Augusta and a T55 at Southern Hills. Some good, some dangerous.
It’s actually a glass-half-full tackle his present state, however there’s an excessive amount of proof to counsel he’ll present up moderately than fall flat. If he can filter out the LIV Golf nonsense for 4 days, he’s against the law to not think about at 55/1.